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Cheesecake Factory Inc

CAKE

Retail-Eating Places

Mkt Cap

$1.614B

PE

15.93

Debt

$470M

Cash

$56.29M

EV

$2.028B

FCF

$66.84M

Market Cap

$1.614B

P/E Ratio

15.93

Debt

$470M

Cash

$56.29M

EV

$2.028B

FCF

$66.84M
Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-29","value":101276000},{"time":"2015-12-28","value":116523000},{"time":"2017-01-02","value":139494000},{"time":"2018-01-01","value":157392000},{"time":"2018-12-31","value":99035000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":127293000},{"time":"2020-12-28","value":-277107000},{"time":"2021-12-27","value":49131000},{"time":"2023-01-02","value":43123000},{"time":"2024-01-01","value":101351000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-29","value":1976624000},{"time":"2015-12-28","value":2100609000},{"time":"2017-01-02","value":2275719000},{"time":"2018-01-01","value":2260502000},{"time":"2018-12-31","value":2332331000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2482692000},{"time":"2020-12-28","value":1983225000},{"time":"2021-12-27","value":2927540000},{"time":"2023-01-02","value":3303156000},{"time":"2024-01-01","value":3439503000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-29","value":0.05123685637733833},{"time":"2015-12-28","value":0.05547105625083012},{"time":"2017-01-02","value":0.06129667151348651},{"time":"2018-01-01","value":0.06962701205307494},{"time":"2018-12-31","value":0.042461811809730264},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.05127216746982711},{"time":"2020-12-28","value":-0.1397254471882918},{"time":"2021-12-27","value":0.016782349686084563},{"time":"2023-01-02","value":0.013055090343901407},{"time":"2024-01-01","value":0.029466757261150812}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-29","value":1176452000},{"time":"2015-12-28","value":1233346000},{"time":"2017-01-02","value":1293319000},{"time":"2018-01-01","value":1333060000},{"time":"2018-12-31","value":1314133000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2840593000},{"time":"2020-12-28","value":2747054000},{"time":"2021-12-27","value":2798125000},{"time":"2023-01-02","value":2775220000},{"time":"2024-01-01","value":2840383000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-29","value":556510000},{"time":"2015-12-28","value":588539000},{"time":"2017-01-02","value":603207000},{"time":"2018-01-01","value":613530000},{"time":"2018-12-31","value":571059000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":571742000},{"time":"2020-12-28","value":288693000},{"time":"2021-12-27","value":330166000},{"time":"2023-01-02","value":292003000},{"time":"2024-01-01","value":318062000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-29","value":0.18198415122818998},{"time":"2015-12-28","value":0.1979868793741791},{"time":"2017-01-02","value":0.23125394764981175},{"time":"2018-01-01","value":0.25653513275634443},{"time":"2018-12-31","value":0.17342341159144678},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.22264063161355996},{"time":"2020-12-28","value":-0.9598674023963172},{"time":"2021-12-27","value":0.14880696376974006},{"time":"2023-01-02","value":0.14767998958914805},{"time":"2024-01-01","value":0.3186517094151455}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-29","value":0.12302329376804154},{"time":"2015-12-28","value":0.13398186721325564},{"time":"2017-01-02","value":0.15540868107558925},{"time":"2018-01-01","value":0.11465725473722113},{"time":"2018-12-31","value":0.09051443042675285},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.049403064782599974},{"time":"2020-12-28","value":-0.1264762177955002},{"time":"2021-12-27","value":0.029418985928076836},{"time":"2023-01-02","value":0.014029518380524787},{"time":"2024-01-01","value":0.038222310160284725}]}

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated engages in restaurant business. The company operates two bakeries that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. It also operates restaurants in the United States and Canada under brands comprising The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and a collection of Fox Restaurant Concepts, as well as The Cheesecake Factory restaurants under licensing agreements internationally. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Calabasas, California.

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Growth

%

%

Discount

%

%

Multiple

g\r+10%+11%+12%+13%+14%
0%109887
+1%1110988
+2%13111098
+3%141311109
+4%1714121110
Years012345678910TV
FCF$66.84M$59.43M$52.85M$46.99M$41.78M$37.15M$33.04M$29.38M$26.12M$23.23M$20.65M$206.5M
DCF$51.68M$39.96M$30.9M$23.89M$18.47M$14.28M$11.04M$8.539M$6.603M$5.105M$51.05M
Value$261.5M

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -12%
Earnings Stability 15%


Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years12-201501-201701-201812-201812-201912-202012-202101-202301-2024TTM
Net Margin5.5%6.1%7%4.2%5.1%-14%1.7%1.3%2.9%2.9%
ROA13%16%11%9.1%4.9%-13%2.9%1.4%3.8%3.8%
ROE20%23%26%17%22%-96%15%15%32%32%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.22%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.07%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +1.59%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.6%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +0.86%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +4.6%.


Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years12-201501-201701-201812-201812-201912-202012-202101-202301-2024TTM
Debt FCF--0.080.052.00-5.903.199.467.037.03
Debt Equity--0.020.020.510.971.411.601.481.48
MIN
Graham Stability--100%72%96%-220%----220%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 7.03.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.90.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -2.17.


Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years01-201712-201812-202001-2023Trend
Revenue6.1%8.1%20%4.1%1.3%
Net Income-4.5%0.46%-140%8.7%
Stockholders Equity-8.7%-11%3.3%8.9%-0.78%
FCF-15%-19%-35%-4.7%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.08%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.3%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +0.46%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +8.65%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -11.05%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.78%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -18.72%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -4.7%.