Conagra Brands Inc.

CAG

Food and Kindred Products

Mkt Cap

$14.23B

PE

14.96

Debt

$9.529B

Cash

$78.5M

EV

$23.69B

FCF

$1.419B

Market Cap

$14.23B

P/E Ratio

14.96

Debt

$9.529B

Cash

$78.5M

EV

$23.69B

FCF

$1.419B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":-252600000},{"time":"2016-05-28","value":-677000000},{"time":"2017-05-27","value":639300000},{"time":"2018-05-26","value":808400000},{"time":"2019-05-25","value":678300000},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":840100000},{"time":"2021-05-29","value":1298800000},{"time":"2022-05-28","value":888200000},{"time":"2023-05-27","value":683200000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":1900000000},{"time":"2016-05-28","value":1500000000},{"time":"2017-05-27","value":7826900000},{"time":"2018-05-26","value":7938300000},{"time":"2019-05-25","value":9538400000},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":11054400000},{"time":"2021-05-29","value":11184700000},{"time":"2022-05-28","value":11535900000},{"time":"2023-05-27","value":12277000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":-0.13294736842105262},{"time":"2016-05-28","value":-0.4513333333333333},{"time":"2017-05-27","value":0.08167984770471068},{"time":"2018-05-26","value":0.10183540556542332},{"time":"2019-05-25","value":0.07111255556487461},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":0.07599688811694891},{"time":"2021-05-29","value":0.11612291791465126},{"time":"2022-05-28","value":0.07699442609592663},{"time":"2023-05-27","value":0.0556487741304879}],"Assets":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":17542200000},{"time":"2016-05-28","value":13390600000},{"time":"2017-05-27","value":10096300000},{"time":"2018-05-26","value":10389500000},{"time":"2019-05-25","value":22213800000},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":22304000000},{"time":"2021-05-29","value":22195600000},{"time":"2022-05-28","value":22435100000},{"time":"2023-05-27","value":22052600000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":4610000000},{"time":"2016-05-28","value":3794800000},{"time":"2017-05-27","value":4077800000},{"time":"2018-05-26","value":3756600000},{"time":"2019-05-25","value":7463700000},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":7950700000},{"time":"2021-05-29","value":8631400000},{"time":"2022-05-28","value":8862200000},{"time":"2023-05-27","value":8807300000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":-0.0547939262472885},{"time":"2016-05-28","value":-0.17840202382207232},{"time":"2017-05-27","value":0.1567757123939379},{"time":"2018-05-26","value":0.2151945908534313},{"time":"2019-05-25","value":0.09087985851521363},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":0.10566365225703397},{"time":"2021-05-29","value":0.15047385128716084},{"time":"2022-05-28","value":0.1002234208210151},{"time":"2023-05-27","value":0.0775720141246466}],"ROA":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":0.010346478776892295},{"time":"2016-05-28","value":0.12850805789135664},{"time":"2017-05-27","value":0.12264889117795628},{"time":"2018-05-26","value":0.13595456951730112},{"time":"2019-05-25","value":0.07390901151536432},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":0.08140243902439025},{"time":"2021-05-29","value":0.0964605597505812},{"time":"2022-05-28","value":0.07076411515883593},{"time":"2023-05-27","value":0.0663957991347959}]}

Conagra Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a consumer packaged goods food company in North America. The company operates in four segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice. The Grocery & Snacks segment primarily offers shelf stable food products through various retail channels in the United States. The Refrigerated & Frozen segment provides temperature-controlled food products through various retail channels in the United States. The International segment offers food products in various temperature states through retail and foodservice channels outside of the United States. The Foodservice segment offers branded and customized food products, including meals, entrees, sauces, and various custom-manufactured culinary products packaged for restaurants and other foodservice establishments in the United States. The company sells its products under the Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, Slim Jim, Angie's BOOMCHICKAPOP, Duke's, Earth Balance, Gardein, and Frontera brands. The company was formerly known as ConAgra Foods, Inc. and changed its name to Conagra Brands, Inc. in November 2016. Conagra Brands, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Sector

10-Q
8/27/23
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10-Q
11/25/18
10-Q
8/26/18
10-K
5/27/18
10-Q
2/25/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Conagra Brands Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$1.419B	$1.422B	$1.425B	$1.429B	$1.432B	$1.435B	$1.438B	$1.441B	$1.445B	$1.448B	$1.451B	$14.51B
DCF		$1.237B	$1.078B	$939.3M	$818.6M	$713.4M	$621.8M	$541.9M	$472.3M	$411.6M	$358.7M	$3.587B
Value	$10.78B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 5%

Earnings Stability 0.25%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	05-2015	05-2016	05-2017	05-2018	05-2019	05-2020	05-2021	05-2022	05-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-13%	-45%	8.2%	10%	7.1%	7.6%	12%	7.7%	5.6%	7.9%
ROA	1%	13%	12%	14%	7.4%	8.1%	9.6%	7.1%	6.6%	8.3%
ROE	-5.5%	-18%	16%	22%	9.1%	11%	15%	10%	7.8%	10%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +8.3%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.49%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +8.75%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.98%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +12.33%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -1.76%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	05-2015	05-2016	05-2017	05-2018	05-2019	05-2020	05-2021	05-2022	05-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	7.81	3.40	5.48	13.85	7.19	9.37	13.34	15.98	6.72
Debt Equity	1.93	1.60	0.78	1.02	1.43	1.33	1.04	1.07	1.15	1.03
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	95%	68%	68%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 6.72.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.52.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.68.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	05-2016	05-2018	05-2020	05-2022	Trend
Revenue	35%	9.1%	3.6%	6.4%	-23%
Net Income	-	-3.3%	-6.7%	-23%	-7.5%
Stockholders Equity	13%	19%	3.5%	-0.62%	0.63%
FCF	-2.9%	-2.1%	-25%	-11%	-1.2%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.11%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -22.69%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -3.31%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -7.53%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +18.58%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.63%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -2.06%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.15%.