Bluelinx Holdings Inc.

BXC

Wholesale-Lumber, Plywood, Millwork & Wood Panels

Mkt Cap

$895.1M

PE

18.56

Debt

$598.3M

Cash

$481.3M

EV

$1.012B

FCF

$162.2M

Market Cap

$895.1M

P/E Ratio

18.56

Debt

$598.3M

Cash

$481.3M

EV

$1.012B

FCF

$162.2M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":-13872000},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":-11576000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":16085000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":62994000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":-48053000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":-17656000},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":80882000},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":296133000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":296176000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":48536000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":1979393000},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":1916585000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1881043000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":1815535000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":2862850000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":2637268000},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":3097328000},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":4277178000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":4450214000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":3136381000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":-0.007008209082279265},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":-0.006039909526579828},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.008551107018818815},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":0.03469721046413316},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":-0.016785021918717363},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":-0.006694806898654214},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":0.026113475873397973},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":0.0692356034750015},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.06655320395828156},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":0.015475160702733502}],"Assets":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":538982000},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":513142000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":444137000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":494095000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":959889000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":971425000},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":1048130000},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":1317454000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1490042000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":1537601000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":-36026000},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":-45896000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-29841000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":35002000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":-14663000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":-26083000},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":59092000},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":363249000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":590029000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":634286000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":0.3850552378837506},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":0.25222241589681016},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.5390234911698669},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":1.799725729958288},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":3.2771601991406945},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":0.6769159989265039},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":1.368747038516212},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":0.8152341782083364},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.5019685473086916},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":0.07652068625194312}],"ROA":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":0.02511401122857535},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":0.03271998783962334},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.09422543044150791},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":0.06069278175249699},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":-0.013841183720200982},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":0.03618807422086111},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":0.13570931086792667},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":0.3325178715917216},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.2946809553019311},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":0.09004221511302347}]}

BlueLinx Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes residential and commercial building products in the United States. The company distributes specialty products comprising engineered wood, siding, millwork, outdoor living, specialty lumber and panels, and industrial products; and structural products include lumber, plywood, oriented strand boards, rebars and remesh, and other wood products primarily that are used for structural support in construction projects. It also provides various value-added services and solutions to customers and suppliers. The company serves dealers, specialty distributors, national home centers, pro dealers, cooperatives, regional and local dealers, and industrial manufacturers. BlueLinx Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Marietta, Georgia.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
7/1/23
10-Q
4/1/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
10/1/22
10-Q
7/2/22
10-Q
4/2/22
10-K
1/1/22
10-Q
10/2/21
10-Q
7/3/21
10-Q
4/3/21
10-K
1/2/21
10-Q
9/26/20
10-Q
6/27/20
10-Q
3/28/20
10-K
12/28/19
10-Q
9/28/19
10-Q
6/29/19
10-Q
3/30/19
10-K
12/29/18
10-Q
9/29/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/30/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Bluelinx Holdings Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$162.2M	$210.9M	$268.3M	$333.9M	$406.2M	$483M	$560.8M	$635.5M	$702.6M	$757.3M	$795.1M	$7.951B
DCF		$183.4M	$202.9M	$219.5M	$232.3M	$240.1M	$242.4M	$238.9M	$229.7M	$215.3M	$196.5M	$1.965B
Value	$4.167B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 34%

Earnings Stability 4.2%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	01-2016	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	01-2021	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-0.6%	0.86%	3.5%	-1.7%	-0.67%	2.6%	6.9%	6.7%	1.5%	1.6%
ROA	3.3%	9.4%	6.1%	-1.4%	3.6%	14%	33%	29%	9%	8.4%
ROE	25%	-54%	180%	330%	68%	140%	82%	50%	7.7%	7.4%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.56%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.21%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +14.59%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +4.26%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +111.94%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -48.8%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	01-2016	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	01-2021	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	10.02	7.37	-83.84	12.91	-46.48	11.74	4.39	1.57	2.12	3.69
Debt Equity	-8.38	-10.06	7.90	-34.20	-25.58	10.19	1.58	0.97	0.93	0.92
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-210%	-170%	-	100%	100%	22%	-210%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.69.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 2.37.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -2.14.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	01-2021	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	7.6%	1.8%	0.42%	-30%	-0.75%
Net Income	17%	-	-16%	-84%	-59%
Stockholders Equity	-	-	120%	7.5%	-250%
FCF	32%	48%	76%	-24%	8.9%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.84%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.75%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -58.56%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -253.61%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +48.32%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +8.93%.