Blackstone Inc.

BX

Investment Advice

Mkt Cap

$91.71B

PE

42.61

Debt

$10.88B

Cash

$2.672B

EV

$99.91B

FCF

$4.472B

Market Cap

$91.71B

P/E Ratio

42.61

Debt

$10.88B

Cash

$2.672B

EV

$99.91B

FCF

$4.472B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1584589000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":709789000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1039235000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1470830000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1541788000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2049682000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1045363000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":5857397000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1747631000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1390880000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":7484728000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":4646552000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":5125834000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":7119053000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":6833259000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":7338270000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":6101927000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":22577148000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":8517673000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":8022841000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.21170963059713058},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.15275606514249707},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.2027445680059089},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.20660472678037373},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.22562996660890505},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.2793140617611508},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.17131686432826876},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.2594391904593087},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.2051770477687979},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.17336502119386388}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":31510894000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":22526080000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":26403337000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":34428910000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":28924650000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":32585506000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":26269252000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":41196408000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":42524227000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":40287530000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":14891693000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":6269788000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":6461042000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":6636347000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":13612307000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":15015401000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":14525348000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":21638018000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":17966061000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":16896141000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.10640757904423627},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.11320781500108137},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.1608463464561908},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.22163247340743333},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.11326426887080933},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.13650531211254366},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.07196818967779636},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.2706993311494611},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.09727402127823122},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.0823193887882446}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.12651897467586923},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.08056208625735148},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.09021624804470738},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.11958267049407025},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.12145146095112647},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.11716911807353858},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.09964196924982865},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.3291402493149403},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.08140745274452608},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.07341512373679895}]}

Blackstone Inc. is an alternative asset management firm specializing in real estate, private equity, hedge fund solutions, credit, secondary funds of funds, public debt and equity and multi-asset class strategies. The firm typically invests in early-stage companies. It also provide capital markets services. The real estate segment specializes in opportunistic, core+ investments as well as debt investment opportunities collateralized by commercial real estate, and stabilized income-oriented commercial real estate across North America, Europe and Asia. The firm's corporate private equity business pursues transactions throughout the world across a variety of transaction types, including large buyouts,special situations, distressed mortgage loans, mid-cap buyouts, buy and build platforms, which involves multiple acquisitions behind a single management team and platform, and growth equity/development projects involving significant majority stakes in portfolio companies and minority investments in operating companies, shipping, real estate, corporate or consumer loans, and alternative energy greenfield development projects in energy and power, property, dislocated markets, shipping opportunities, financial institution breakups, re-insurance, and improving freight mobility, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, enterprise tech and consumer, as well as consumer technologies. The firm considers investment in Asia and Latin America. It has a three year investment period. Its hedge fund business manages a broad range of commingled and customized fund solutions and its credit business focuses on loans, and securities of non-investment grade companies spread across the capital structure including senior debt, subordinated debt, preferred stock and common equity. Blackstone Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in New York, New York with additional offices across Asia, Europe and North America.

Sector

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10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Blackstone Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$4.472B	$5.368B	$6.354B	$7.414B	$8.528B	$9.667B	$10.8B	$11.88B	$12.87B	$13.73B	$14.41B	$144.1B
DCF		$4.667B	$4.804B	$4.875B	$4.876B	$4.806B	$4.668B	$4.465B	$4.207B	$3.902B	$3.563B	$35.63B
Value	$80.46B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 13%

Earnings Stability 8.4%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	15%	20%	21%	23%	28%	17%	26%	21%	17%	21%
ROA	8.1%	9%	12%	12%	12%	10%	33%	8.1%	7.3%	12%
ROE	11%	16%	22%	11%	14%	7.2%	27%	9.7%	8.2%	12%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +21.9%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -1.13%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +13.7%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.34%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +12.87%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.21%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	2.88	-80.98	-9.19	379.88	6.07	3.14	2.00	2.05	3.03	2.43
Debt Equity	1.07	1.38	2.29	0.76	0.77	0.39	0.36	0.70	0.69	0.62
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	62%	100%	59%	48%	48%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 2.43.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -54.21.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.48.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	6.6%	3.3%	9.6%	-5.8%	6%
Net Income	4.3%	-2%	10%	-20%	9.6%
Stockholders Equity	15%	4.4%	5.2%	-6%	2.2%
FCF	-	170%	28%	-37%	-170%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.26%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +6%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -2.04%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +9.55%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.42%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.2%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +168.7%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -173.96%.