Blackbaud Inc

BLKB

Services-Prepackaged Software

Mkt Cap

$4.029B

PE

185.11

Debt

$1.06B

Cash

$382.9M

EV

$4.707B

FCF

$238.9M

Market Cap

$4.029B

P/E Ratio

185.11

Debt

$1.06B

Cash

$382.9M

EV

$4.707B

FCF

$238.9M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":28290000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":25649000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":41515000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":65933000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":44841000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":11908000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":7717000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":5698000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-45407000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1820000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":564421000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":637940000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":730815000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":788306000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":848606000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":900423000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":913219000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":927740000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1058105000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1105432000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.050122160585803856},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.0402059754835878},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.05680644212283546},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.0836388407547323},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.05284077652055253},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.013224895410268285},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.008450327906011593},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.006141806971780887},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.04291351047391327},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.0016464151571512313}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":943183000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1223853000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1310210000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1759426000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1615305000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1992963000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2044734000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2971617000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2992703000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2912279000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":185916000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":210588000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":247545000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":306902000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":373783000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":396764000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":426150000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":717060000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":744032000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":808705000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.152165494094107},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.1217970634604061},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.167706881577087},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.21483405126066302},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.11996532747610245},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.030012803580970047},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.018108647189956587},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.007946336429308566},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.06102828910584491},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.002250511620430194}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.0491569504539416},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.03816798259268066},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.04716801123484022},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.0376776289539884},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.03746660847332237},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.015656587703835947},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.019024968528913784},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.008381295436121141},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.009518151316719367},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.015350521018075535}]}

Blackbaud, Inc. provides cloud software solutions to higher education institutions, K12 schools, healthcare organizations, faith communities, arts and cultural organizations, foundations, companies, and individual change agents in the United States and internationally. The company offers fundraising and engagement solutions, such as Blackbaud Raiser's Edge NXT, Blackbaud CRM, Blackbaud eTapestry, Blackbaud Luminate Online, Blackbaud TeamRaiser, JustGiving, Blackbaud Fundraiser Performance Management, Blackbaud Guided Fundraising, and Blackbaud Altru; and financial management solutions comprising Blackbaud Financial Edge NXT, Blackbaud Tuition Management, and Blackbaud Financial Aid Management. It also provides grant and award management solutions, consisting of Blackbaud Grantmaking and Blackbaud Award Management; education solutions, such as Blackbaud Student Information System, Blackbaud Learning Management System, Blackbaud Enrollment Management System, and Blackbaud School Website System; social responsibility solutions, which includes YourCause GrantsConnect and YourCause CSRconnect, and EVERFI; Blackbaud Merchant Services and Blackbaud Purchase Cards payment services; and Blackbaud's Intelligence for Good solutions, as well as Data Health, Insights, and Performance solutions and services. It sells its solutions and related services through its direct sales force. Blackbaud, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Charleston, South Carolina.

Sector

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10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Blackbaud Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$238.9M	$260.4M	$282.7M	$305.6M	$329M	$352.8M	$376.7M	$400.6M	$424.2M	$447.3M	$469.7M	$4.697B
DCF		$226.4M	$213.7M	$200.9M	$188.1M	$175.4M	$162.9M	$150.6M	$138.7M	$127.2M	$116.1M	$1.161B
Value	$2.861B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -22%

Earnings Stability 11%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	4%	5.7%	8.4%	5.3%	1.3%	0.85%	0.61%	-4.3%	0.16%	1.9%
ROA	3.8%	4.7%	3.8%	3.7%	1.6%	1.9%	0.84%	-0.95%	1.5%	2.6%
ROE	12%	17%	21%	12%	3%	1.8%	0.79%	-6.1%	0.23%	4.1%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.66%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -1.22%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +1.44%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.56%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +1.95%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -2.49%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	4.33	2.56	2.70	2.12	2.78	4.63	4.85	4.60	4.11	4.44
Debt Equity	1.97	1.41	1.46	1.06	1.20	1.28	1.37	1.18	0.99	1.99
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	23%	19%	27%	-540%	-	-540%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 4.44.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.45.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -5.38.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	6.1%	5.4%	6.6%	4.5%	-0.91%
Net Income	-36%	-47%	-38%	-	-13%
Stockholders Equity	18%	17%	24%	8.7%	0.24%
FCF	5.3%	0.87%	18%	1.7%	-1.9%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.43%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.91%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -47.32%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -13.46%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +16.69%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.24%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +0.87%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.9%.