Blue Bird Corp

BLBD

Truck & Bus Bodies

Mkt Cap

$1.778B

PE

22.18

Debt

$103.8M

Cash

$93.1M

EV

$1.788B

FCF

$119.6M

Market Cap

$1.778B

P/E Ratio

22.18

Debt

$103.8M

Cash

$93.1M

EV

$1.788B

FCF

$119.6M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":12685000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":3022000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":18449000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":28924000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":24300000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":12185000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":-289000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":-45759000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":23812000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":919128000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":932010000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":990602000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":1024976000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":1018874000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":879221000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":683995000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":800637000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":1132793000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":0.013801124544133134},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":0.0032424544801021448},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.01862402862097997},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.028219197327547182},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.02384985778418136},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":0.013858859149178648},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":-0.00042251770846278114},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":-0.057153241731271474},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.021020610120295588}],"Assets":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":267903000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":277866000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":295816000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":307430000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":365413000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":317415000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":356020000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":366126000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":417766000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":-121230000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":-86974000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":-58510000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":-28336000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":-67811000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":-53230000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":-32656000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":1382000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":39998000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":-0.10463581621710798},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":-0.03474601605077379},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":-0.31531362160314474},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":-1.0207509881422925},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":-0.3583489404373922},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":-0.22891226751831673},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":0.008849828515433611},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":-33.11070911722142},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.5953297664883244}],"ROA":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":0.1342612811353363},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":0.09627662254467981},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.18436122454498743},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.10920534755879387},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.11995194478576296},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":0.0718018997211852},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":0.021689792708274817},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":-0.10474809218684278},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.12365056036154211}]}

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses, as well as diesel engines. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was formerly known as Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

Sector

10-Q
7/1/23
10-Q
4/1/23
10-Q
12/31/22
10-K
10/1/22
10-Q
7/2/22
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4/2/22
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1/1/22
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10/2/21
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7/3/21
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4/3/21
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1/2/21
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10/3/20
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7/4/20
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4/4/20
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1/4/20
10-K
9/28/19
10-Q
6/29/19
10-Q
3/30/19
10-Q
12/29/18
10-K
9/29/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-Q
12/30/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Blue Bird Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$119.6M	$140.8M	$163.7M	$188.1M	$213.5M	$239.3M	$264.8M	$289.3M	$311.9M	$331.9M	$348.5M	$3.485B
DCF		$122.4M	$123.8M	$123.7M	$122.1M	$119M	$114.5M	$108.7M	$102M	$94.35M	$86.14M	$861.4M
Value	$1.978B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 15%

Earnings Stability -9.2%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	10-2015	09-2016	09-2017	09-2018	09-2019	10-2020	10-2021	09-2022	09-2023	TTM
Net Margin	1.4%	0.32%	1.9%	2.8%	2.4%	1.4%	-0.042%	-5.7%	2.1%	6.4%
ROA	13%	9.6%	18%	11%	12%	7.2%	2.2%	-10%	12%	27%
ROE	-10%	-3.5%	-32%	-100%	-36%	-23%	0.88%	-3.3K%	60%	76%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.49%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.84%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +5.69%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.86%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -568.58%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -256.97%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	10-2015	09-2016	09-2017	09-2018	09-2019	10-2020	10-2021	09-2022	09-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	11.16	4.22	9.61	9.71	-12.01	-2.73	-5.55	1.36	0.87
Debt Equity	-1.73	-1.99	-2.77	-5.51	-2.89	-3.50	-5.55	124.02	3.79	0.98
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	51%	-1.3%	-380%	-	-380%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.87.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -2.22.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -3.79.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	09-2016	09-2018	10-2020	09-2022	Trend
Revenue	2.8%	2%	8.8%	41%	2.9%
Net Income	34%	-3.8%	25%	-	-47%
Stockholders Equity	-	-	-	2.8K%	-
FCF	33%	47%	-	-	-8.8%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +2.02%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.91%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -3.81%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -47.38%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +46.99%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -8.81%.