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Blue Bird Corp

BLBD

Truck & Bus Bodies

Mkt Cap

$982.8M

PE

16.04

Debt

$105M

Cash

$77.3M

EV

$1.011B

FCF

$89.94M

Market Cap

$982.8M

P/E Ratio

16.04

Debt

$105M

Cash

$77.3M

EV

$1.011B

FCF

$89.94M
Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":12685000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":3022000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":18449000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":28924000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":24300000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":12185000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":-289000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":-45759000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":23812000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":919128000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":932010000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":990602000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":1024976000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":1018874000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":879221000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":683995000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":800637000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":1132793000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":0.013801124544133134},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":0.0032424544801021448},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.01862402862097997},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.028219197327547182},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.02384985778418136},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":0.013858859149178648},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":-0.00042251770846278114},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":-0.057153241731271474},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.021020610120295588}],"Assets":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":267903000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":277866000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":295816000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":307430000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":365413000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":317415000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":356020000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":366126000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":417766000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":-121230000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":-86974000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":-58510000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":-28336000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":-67811000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":-53230000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":-32656000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":1382000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":39998000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":-0.10463581621710798},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":-0.03474601605077379},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":-0.31531362160314474},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":-1.0207509881422925},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":-0.3583489404373922},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":-0.22891226751831673},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":0.008849828515433611},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":-33.11070911722142},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.5953297664883244}],"ROA":[{"time":"2015-10-02","value":0.1342612811353363},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":0.09627662254467981},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.18436122454498743},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.10920534755879387},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.11995194478576296},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":0.0718018997211852},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":0.021689792708274817},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":-0.10474809218684278},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.12365056036154211}]}

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses, as well as diesel engines. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was formerly known as Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

Sector

  • MLR Logo

    MLR

Growth

%

%

Discount

%

%

Multiple

g\r+10%+11%+12%+13%+14%
0%109887
+1%1110988
+2%13111098
+3%141311109
+4%1714121110
Years012345678910TV
FCF$89.94M$103.7M$118.5M$133.9M$149.8M$166M$181.9M$197.2M$211.6M$224.7M$235.9M$2.359B
DCF$90.21M$89.58M$88.05M$85.68M$82.51M$78.63M$74.15M$69.19M$63.86M$58.31M$583.1M
Value$1.363B

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 12%
Earnings Stability -24%


Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years10-201509-201609-201709-201809-201910-202010-202109-202209-2023TTM
Net Margin1.4%0.32%1.9%2.8%2.4%1.4%-0.042%-5.7%2.1%5%
ROA13%9.6%18%11%12%7.2%2.2%-10%12%23%
ROE-10%-3.5%-32%-100%-36%-23%0.88%-3.3K%60%81%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.49%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.84%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +5.69%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.86%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -568.58%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -256.97%.


Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years10-201509-201609-201709-201809-201910-202010-202109-202209-2023TTM
Debt FCF-11.164.229.619.71-12.01-2.73-5.551.361.17
Debt Equity-1.73-1.99-2.77-5.51-2.89-3.50-5.55124.023.791.39
MIN
Graham Stability---100%100%51%-1.3%-380%--380%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.17.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -2.22.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -3.79.


Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years09-201609-201810-202009-2022Trend
Revenue2.8%2%8.8%41%2.9%
Net Income34%-3.8%25%--47%
Stockholders Equity---2.8K%-
FCF33%47%---8.8%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +2.02%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.91%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -3.81%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -47.38%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +46.99%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -8.81%.