Blue Bird Corp

Consumer Discretionary
Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks
www.blue-bird.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $1.25B
PE 12
Debt $101.25M
Cash $127.69M
EV $1.23B
FCF $95.85M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$105.55M
EBIT	$139.33M
ROE	66%
ROA	27%
FCF	$95.85M
Equity	$159.56M
Growth Stability	-379%
PE	11.88
PEG	0.59
PB	7.86
P/FCF	13.08
P/S	0.93
Price/Cash	0.1
Debt/Equity	0.63
Debt/FCF	1.06
Net Margins	8%
Gross Margins	19%
Op. Margins	10%
Earnings CAGR	6%
Sales Growth YoY	16%
Sales Growth QoQ	5%
Sales CAGR	1%
FCF CAGR	7%
Equity CAGR	2%
Earnings Stability	0.13
Earnings Growth YoY	32%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-14%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	20%
Sales CAGR 5Y	9%
FCF CAGR 5Y	25%
Equity CAGR 5Y	33%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	31%
Sales CAGR 3Y	31%
FCF CAGR 3Y	98%
Equity CAGR 3Y	117%
Market Cap	$1.25B
Revenue	$1.35B
Assets	$524.89M
Total Debt	$101.25M
Cash	$127.69M
Shares Outstanding	32.27M
EV	1.23B
Earnings Score	8%
Moat Score	95%
Safety Score	63%
Final Score	55%
Working Capital	87.41M
Current Ratio	1.37
Gross Profit	$256.16M
Shares Growth 3y	4%
Equity Growth QoQ	16%
Equity Growth YoY	299%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Blue Bird Corp is an American bus manufacturing company. It has its operations in two segments. The Bus segment involves the design, engineering, manufacture and sales of school buses and extended warranties; and the Parts segment which includes the sales of replacement bus parts. It carries its operations in the United States, Canada, and the rest of the world. The majority of its sales are derived from the United States through its bus manufacturing business.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-K Sep 28
- 10-Q Jun 29
- 10-Q Mar 30
2023
- 10-Q Dec 30
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jul 01
- 10-Q Apr 01
2022
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Oct 01
- 10-Q Jul 02
- 10-Q Apr 02
- 10-Q Jan 01

Sector Comparison

How does Blue Bird Corp compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Blue Bird Corp compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 6%

Stability 13%

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Blue Bird Corp Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Blue Bird Corp.

Years

Calculation mode

= $1.6B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$96M	$103M	$110M	$118M	$126M	$135M	$144M	$154M	$165M	$177M	$189M	$1.9B
DCF		$93M	$91M	$88M	$86M	$84M	$81M	$79M	$77M	$75M	$73M	$729M
Value	$1.6B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	10/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	10/2020	10/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	TTM
Net Margins	1%	0%	2%	3%	2%	1%	-0%	-6%	2%	8%	8%
ROA	-	10%	18%	11%	12%	7%	2%	-10%	12%	27%	27%
ROE	-	-3%	-32%	-102%	-36%	-23%	1%	-3K%	60%	66%	66%

Net Margins (7.83%)

Net Margins are at a level that is not too high nor too low. They are not a competitive advantage but they are not a competitive disadvantage either.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	10/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	10/2020	10/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	11.16	4.22	9.61	9.71	-12.01	-2.73	-5.55	1.36	1.06	1.06
Debt over Equity	-1.73	-1.99	-2.77	-5.51	-2.89	-3.5	-5.55	124.02	3.79	0.63	0.63
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	51%	-1%	-379%	-	-	-379%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (1.06)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.63)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (-379%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	10/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	10/2020	10/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	1%	6%	3%	-1%	-14%	-22%	17%	41%	19%	9%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-76%	510%	57%	-16%	-50%	-102%	16K%	-152%	343%	20%
Equity YoY growth	-	-28%	-33%	-52%	139%	-22%	-39%	-104%	3K%	299%	33%
FCF YoY growth	-	-15%	147%	-58%	24%	-177%	328%	-54%	-461%	-14%	25%