Transportation Services
Booking Holdings Inc. provides travel and restaurant online reservation and related services worldwide. The company operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; Rentalcars.com that provides online rental car reservation services; and Priceline, which offer online travel reservation services, and consumers hotel, flight, and rental car reservation services, as well as vacation packages, cruises, and hotel distribution services. It also operates Agoda that provides online accommodation reservation services, as well as flight, ground transportation and activities reservation services. In addition, the company operates KAYAK, an online meta-search service that allows consumers to search and compare travel itineraries and prices, comprising airline ticket, accommodation reservation, and rental car reservation information; and OpenTable for booking online restaurant reservations. Further, it offers travel-related insurance products, and restaurant management services to consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants; and advertising services. The company was formerly known as The Priceline Group Inc. and changed its name to Booking Holdings Inc. in February 2018. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Booking Holdings Inc.
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $6.772B | $7.147B | $7.538B | $7.946B | $8.372B | $8.815B | $9.276B | $9.757B | $10.26B | $10.78B | $11.31B | $113.1B |
DCF | $6.215B | $5.7B | $5.225B | $4.786B | $4.383B | $4.01B | $3.668B | $3.353B | $3.063B | $2.797B | $27.97B | |
Value | $71.16B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 28% | 20% | 18% | 28% | 32% | 0.87% | 11% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
ROA | 19% | 15% | 18% | 24% | 29% | 4.2% | 11% | 20% | 24% | 23% |
ROE | 29% | 22% | 21% | 46% | 82% | 1.2% | 19% | 110% | -160% | -120% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +18.21%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -2.02%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +18.58%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.53%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +16.86%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -25.93%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 2.22 | 1.70 | 2.06 | 1.79 | 1.93 | -60.63 | 4.34 | 2.11 | 2.32 | 3.02 |
Debt Equity | 0.74 | 0.65 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.47 | 2.49 | 1.77 | 4.69 | -5.91 | -5.05 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 99% | 100% | 100% | 1.6% | 39% | 100% | 100% | 1.6% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.02.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.95.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.02.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 10% | 8% | 46% | 25% | 3.3% |
Net Income | 10% | 1.4% | 320% | 40% | 71% |
Stockholders Equity | - | - | - | - | -5.2% |
FCF | 9.3% | 7.4% | - | 13% | 8% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.02%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.31%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.42%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +70.61%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.21%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.41%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +8.01%.