Biogen Inc.

BIIB

Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)

Mkt Cap

$31.75B

PE

27.21

Debt

$6.54B

Cash

$1.074B

EV

$37.22B

FCF

$1.389B

Market Cap

$31.75B

P/E Ratio

27.21

Debt

$6.54B

Cash

$1.074B

EV

$37.22B

FCF

$1.389B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":2934784000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":3547000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":3695700000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":2539100000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":4430700000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":5888500000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":4000600000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1556100000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2961600000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1161100000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":9703324000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":10763800000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":11448800000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":12273900000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":13452900000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":14377900000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":13444600000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":10981700000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":10173400000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":9835600000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.3024514073733908},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.3295304632193092},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.3228023897701069},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.2068698620650323},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.3293490622839685},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.4095521599120873},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.29756184639185995},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.14169937259258586},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.29111211591011854},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.11805075440237504}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":14316559000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":19504800000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":22876800000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":23652600000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":25288900000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":27234300000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":24618900000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":23877300000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":24554100000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":26844800000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":10814040000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":9374900000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":12140100000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":12612800000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":13039600000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":13343200000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":10700300000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":10959700000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":13397900000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":14799400000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.2713864568653343},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.37835070240749236},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.3044208861541503},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.20131136623113027},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.3397880303076781},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.4413109299118652},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.3738773679242638},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.14198381342554997},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.2210495674695288},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.07845588334662217}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.27772965556877177},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.250758787580493},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.22699853126311373},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.2274422262246011},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.24122045640577486},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.2685326959018591},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.21406317910223446},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.11897073789750097},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.15632419840271075},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.057504619144117294}]}

Biogen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers therapies for treating neurological and neurodegenerative diseases in the United States, Europe, Germany, Asia, and internationally. The company offers TECFIDERA, VUMERITY, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, and FAMPYRA for multiple sclerosis (MS); SPINRAZA for spinal muscular atrophy; ADUHELM to treat Alzheimer's disease; FUMADERM to treat plaque psoriasis; BENEPALI, an etanercept biosimilar referencing ENBREL; IMRALDI, an adalimumab biosimilar referencing HUMIRA; FLIXABI, an infliximab biosimilar referencing REMICADE; and BYOOVIZ, a ranibizumab biosimilar referencing LUCENTIS. It also provides RITUXAN for treating non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), rheumatoid arthritis, two forms of ANCA-associated vasculitis, and pemphigus vulgaris; RITUXAN HYCELA for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and CLL; GAZYVA to treat CLL and follicular lymphoma; OCREVUS for relapsing MS and primary progressive MS; LUNSUMIO to treat relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma; glofitamab for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma; and other anti-CD20 therapies. In addition, the company is developing various products for the treatment of MS, Alzheimer's disease and dementia, neuromuscular disorders, Parkinson's disease and movement disorders, neuropsychiatry, immunology related diseases, neurovascular disorders, genetic neurodevelopmental disorders, and biosimilars, which are under various stages of development. Biogen Inc. has collaboration and license agreements with Acorda Therapeutics, Inc.; Alkermes Pharma Ireland Limited; Denali Therapeutics Inc.; Eisai Co., Ltd.; Genentech, Inc.; Neurimmune SubOne AG; Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Samsung Bioepis Co., Ltd.; Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc.; and Sage Therapeutics, Inc. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Biogen Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$1.389B	$1.266B	$1.154B	$1.052B	$959.3M	$874.6M	$797.3M	$726.9M	$662.7M	$604.1M	$550.7M	$5.507B
DCF		$1.101B	$872.8M	$691.9M	$548.5M	$434.8M	$344.7M	$273.3M	$216.6M	$171.7M	$136.1M	$1.361B
Value	$6.153B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -8.9%

Earnings Stability 29%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	33%	32%	21%	33%	41%	30%	14%	29%	12%	12%
ROA	25%	23%	23%	24%	27%	21%	12%	16%	5.8%	5.7%
ROE	38%	30%	20%	34%	44%	37%	14%	22%	7.8%	7.7%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +26.46%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -4.48%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +17.61%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -3.86%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +26.61%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -6.28%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	2.28	1.96	1.77	1.27	0.91	1.95	2.15	5.49	5.80	4.71
Debt Equity	0.70	0.54	0.47	0.46	0.45	0.69	0.66	0.47	0.50	0.43
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	75%	100%	100%	93%	33%	78%	41%	33%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 4.71.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.05.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.33.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	-2.1%	-6.1%	-9.9%	-3.3%	-2.8%
Net Income	-15%	-23%	-34%	-61%	-3.9%
Stockholders Equity	2.9%	2.6%	11%	10%	0.79%
FCF	-13%	-23%	-31%	11%	-5.9%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is -6.07%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.76%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -23.5%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -3.91%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +2.56%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.79%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -22.98%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.91%.