Axon Enterprise, Inc.

AXON

Ordnance & Accessories, (No Vehicles/Guided Missiles)

Mkt Cap

$21.69B

PE

82.69

Debt

$677.9M

Cash

$406M

EV

$21.96B

FCF

$162.3M

Market Cap

$21.69B

P/E Ratio

82.69

Debt

$677.9M

Cash

$406M

EV

$21.96B

FCF

$162.3M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":19918000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":19933000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":17297000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":5207000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":29205000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":882000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-1724000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-60018000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":147139000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":174227000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":164525000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":197892000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":268245000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":343798000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":420068000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":530860000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":681003000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":863381000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1189935000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1563391000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.12106366813554172},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.10072665898570937},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.06448209659080319},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.015145521498088994},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.06952445794490415},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.0016614549975511434},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.002531560066548899},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-0.06951508082758365},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.12365297264136277},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.11144173146704824}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":185368000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":229881000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":278163000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":338112000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":719540000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":845639000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1381023000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1688210000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2851894000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":3436845000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":129106000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":157004000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":150888000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":167444000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":467324000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":543495000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":976255000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1047849000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1268491000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1612034000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.15427633107678962},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.12695854882678148},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.11463469593340755},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.031096963761018608},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.06249411543169193},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.0016228300168354814},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.0017659320566860092},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-0.05727733671550004},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.115995304657266},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.10807898592709583}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.17535389063916101},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.15382306497709686},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.11450480473679102},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.04661473121332576},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.03905828723906941},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.002447853043674665},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.004555318774560597},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-0.0837425438778351},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.06890789068597922},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.04509950259613105}]}

Axon Enterprise, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells conducted energy devices (CEDs) under the TASER brand in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Software and Sensors, and TASER. The company also offers hardware and cloud-based software solutions that enable law enforcement to capture, securely store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. Its products include TASER 7, TASER X26P, TASER X2, TASER Consumer devices, and related cartridges; on-officer body cameras, Axon Fleet in-car systems, and other devices; Axon Evidence digital evidence management software-as-a-service; Axon Signal enabled devices, as well as hardware extended warranties; and Axon docks, cartridges, and batteries. It sells its products through its direct sales force, distribution partners, online store, and third-party resellers. Axon Enterprise, Inc. has a strategic partnership with Fusus, Inc. to expand the capabilities of Axon Respond and the Fusus Real-Time Crime Center in the Cloud solution to provide agencies real-time operations situational awareness. The company was formerly known as TASER International, Inc. and changed its name to Axon Enterprise, Inc. in April 2017. Axon Enterprise, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

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DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Axon Enterprise, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$162.3M	$191.6M	$223.5M	$257.3M	$292.6M	$328.4M	$363.9M	$398M	$429.4M	$457.1M	$480M	$4.8B
DCF		$166.6M	$169M	$169.2M	$167.3M	$163.3M	$157.3M	$149.6M	$140.4M	$129.9M	$118.6M	$1.186B
Value	$2.718B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 35%

Earnings Stability 25%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	10%	6.4%	1.5%	7%	0.17%	-0.25%	-7%	12%	11%	16%
ROA	15%	11%	4.7%	3.9%	0.24%	-0.46%	-8.4%	6.9%	4.5%	7.7%
ROE	13%	11%	3.1%	6.2%	0.16%	-0.18%	-5.7%	12%	11%	14%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +3.9%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.45%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +1.12%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.43%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +3.82%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.47%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	0.00	-	-	-	-	-	-	3.75	5.22	4.18
Debt Equity	0.00	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.53	0.42	0.37
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	27%	100%	5.1%	-15%	-630%	-	100%	-630%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 4.18.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.47.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -6.35.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	29%	30%	32%	31%	0.91%
Net Income	39%	43%	-	18%	2.3%
Stockholders Equity	40%	28%	18%	27%	-0.17%
FCF	39%	20%	-	-28%	3.6%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +30.06%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.91%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +42.93%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.28%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +28.1%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.17%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +19.71%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.59%.