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American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc

AXL

Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories

Mkt Cap

$824.4M

PE

-24.53

Debt

$2.812B

Cash

$519.9M

EV

$3.116B

FCF

$201.5M

Market Cap

$824.4M

P/E Ratio

-24.53

Debt

$2.812B

Cash

$519.9M

EV

$3.116B

FCF

$201.5M
Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":140100000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":230300000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":235200000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":329600000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-57500000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-484500000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-561300000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":5700000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":61600000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-33600000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":3696000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":3903100000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":3948000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":6266000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":7270400000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":6530900000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":4710800000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":5156600000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":5802400000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":6079500000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.03790584415584416},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.05900438113294561},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.059574468085106386},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.05260134056814555},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-0.007908780809859154},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.0741857936884656},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.11915173643542498},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.001105379513633014},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.010616296704811802},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.005526770293609672}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":3259200000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":3202700000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":3448100000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":7882800000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":7510700000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":6644600000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":5916300000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":5635700000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":5469400000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":5356300000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":113400000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":301500000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":530000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1540000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1486300000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":980400000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":373200000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":457800000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":627300000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":604900000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1.2354497354497354},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.7638474295190714},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.4437735849056604},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.21402597402597404},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-0.038686671600618984},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.4941860465116279},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-1.5040192926045015},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.012450851900393184},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.09819862904511398},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.055546371301041494}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.08486745213549338},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.11612077309769882},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.1138018038919985},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.0688841528390927},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.014166455856311662},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.04539024170002709},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.06693372547031083},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.042692123427435814},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.04459355688009654},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.027369639489946418}]}

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, and manufactures driveline and metal forming technologies that supports electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles. It operates through Driveline and Metal Forming segments. The Driveline segment offers front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, balance shaft systems, disconnecting driveline technology, and electric and hybrid driveline products and systems for light trucks, sport utility vehicles, crossover vehicles, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles. The Metal Forming segment provides range of products, such as engine, transmission, driveline, and safety-critical components for traditional internal combustion engine and electric vehicle architectures including light vehicles, commercial vehicles, and off-highway vehicles, as well as products for industrial markets. It operates across Brazil, China, Czech Republic, England, France, Germany, India, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, Poland, Romina, Scotland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, and United States of America. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Detroit, Michigan.

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Growth

%

%

Discount

%

%

Multiple

g\r+10%+11%+12%+13%+14%
0%109887
+1%1110988
+2%13111098
+3%141311109
+4%1714121110
Years012345678910TV
FCF$201.5M$215.1M$229.3M$243.9M$259M$274.5M$290.4M$306.6M$323.1M$339.9M$356.9M$3.569B
DCF$187.1M$173.4M$160.4M$148.1M$136.5M$125.5M$115.3M$105.6M$96.62M$88.22M$882.2M
Value$2.219B

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -27%
Earnings Stability -4.1%


Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years12-201512-201612-201712-201812-201912-202012-202112-202212-2023TTM
Net Margin5.9%6%5.3%-0.79%-7.4%-12%0.11%1.1%-0.55%-0.55%
ROA12%11%6.9%1.4%-4.5%-6.7%4.3%4.5%2.7%2.7%
ROE76%44%21%-3.9%-49%-150%1.2%9.8%-5.6%-5.6%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -3.25%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.1%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +0.27%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +1.27%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -33.03%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +9.17%.


Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years12-201512-201612-201712-201812-201912-202012-202112-202212-2023TTM
Debt FCF7.597.6923.9616.2029.4614.708.7810.7113.9513.95
Debt Equity4.632.682.632.693.809.426.854.744.654.65
MIN
Graham Stability--100%-22%-290%-----290%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 13.95.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -2.10.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -2.87.


Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years12-201612-201812-202012-2022Trend
Revenue6.4%-3.5%8.9%4.8%-1.9%
Net Income----150%
Stockholders Equity1.9%-16%17%-3.6%-20%
FCF1.3%-4%-5.5%-27%-4.6%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is -3.51%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.86%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -10.19%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +145.83%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -16.46%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -19.81%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -3.97%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -4.61%.