Aviat Networks, Inc.

AVNW

Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment

Mkt Cap

$367.1M

PE

26.89

Debt

$51.77M

Cash

$58.48M

EV

$360.4M

FCF

$27.44M

Market Cap

$367.1M

P/E Ratio

26.89

Debt

$51.77M

Cash

$58.48M

EV

$360.4M

FCF

$27.44M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-06-26","value":-51200000},{"time":"2015-07-02","value":-24700000},{"time":"2016-06-30","value":-29907000},{"time":"2017-06-29","value":-823000},{"time":"2018-06-28","value":1845000},{"time":"2019-06-27","value":9738000},{"time":"2020-07-02","value":257000},{"time":"2021-07-01","value":110139000},{"time":"2022-06-30","value":21160000},{"time":"2023-06-29","value":11528000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-06-26","value":346000000},{"time":"2015-07-02","value":335900000},{"time":"2016-06-30","value":268690000},{"time":"2017-06-29","value":241874000},{"time":"2018-06-28","value":242506000},{"time":"2019-06-27","value":243858000},{"time":"2020-07-02","value":238642000},{"time":"2021-07-01","value":274911000},{"time":"2022-06-30","value":302959000},{"time":"2023-06-29","value":346593000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-06-26","value":-0.14797687861271677},{"time":"2015-07-02","value":-0.07353378981839834},{"time":"2016-06-30","value":-0.11130671033533068},{"time":"2017-06-29","value":-0.00340259804691699},{"time":"2018-06-28","value":0.007608059182040857},{"time":"2019-06-27","value":0.03993307580641193},{"time":"2020-07-02","value":0.0010769269449635856},{"time":"2021-07-01","value":0.4006351146371007},{"time":"2022-06-30","value":0.06984443439541324},{"time":"2023-06-29","value":0.033260914098091995}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-06-26","value":253200000},{"time":"2015-07-02","value":229400000},{"time":"2016-06-30","value":166111000},{"time":"2017-06-29","value":152576000},{"time":"2018-06-28","value":156061000},{"time":"2019-06-27","value":169193000},{"time":"2020-07-02","value":179801000},{"time":"2021-07-01","value":297653000},{"time":"2022-06-30","value":323904000},{"time":"2023-06-29","value":364496000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-06-26","value":111900000},{"time":"2015-07-02","value":83900000},{"time":"2016-06-30","value":53457000},{"time":"2017-06-29","value":54340000},{"time":"2018-06-28","value":57516000},{"time":"2019-06-27","value":71516000},{"time":"2020-07-02","value":68681000},{"time":"2021-07-01","value":183335000},{"time":"2022-06-30","value":201753000},{"time":"2023-06-29","value":220098000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-06-26","value":-0.4575513851653262},{"time":"2015-07-02","value":-0.2943980929678188},{"time":"2016-06-30","value":-0.5594590044334699},{"time":"2017-06-29","value":-0.015145380934854619},{"time":"2018-06-28","value":0.03207803046108909},{"time":"2019-06-27","value":0.13616533363163488},{"time":"2020-07-02","value":0.0037419373625893625},{"time":"2021-07-01","value":0.6007527204298143},{"time":"2022-06-30","value":0.10488072048494942},{"time":"2023-06-29","value":0.05237666857490754}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-06-26","value":-0.19826224328593997},{"time":"2015-07-02","value":-0.11159546643417612},{"time":"2016-06-30","value":-0.16522686637248588},{"time":"2017-06-29","value":-0.0036375314597315435},{"time":"2018-06-28","value":0.008439007823863746},{"time":"2019-06-27","value":0.009763997328494678},{"time":"2020-07-02","value":0.020928693388802065},{"time":"2021-07-01","value":0.07538979953166942},{"time":"2022-06-30","value":0.09396302608180201},{"time":"2023-06-29","value":0.07245346999692727}]}

Aviat Networks, Inc. provides microwave networking and wireless access networking solutions in North America, Africa, the Middle East, Europe, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers outdoor, indoor, and split-mount radios; microwave routers, switches, and trunking; and private LTE, virtual fiber, and element management products; and hosted software products, such as aviat design, frequency assurance software, and health assurance software. It also provides project services, which includes design and engineering, site and path surveys, assembly and integrations, project management, and install and commission; and managed services, such as network and interface monitoring, network health, onsite maintenance, and remote upgrades. In addition, the company offers support services, including extended warranty, warranty plus, provision support, and license key management, as well as instructor and virtual instructor led training, e-learning and certification services. It serves communications service providers and private network operators, including federal, state and local government agencies, transportation agencies, energy and utility companies, public safety agencies, and broadcast network operators. The company markets its products through a direct sales, service, and support organization; indirect sales channels comprising dealers, resellers, and sales representatives; and through online. Aviat Networks, Inc. company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Sector

10-Q
9/29/23
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6/30/23
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6/28/19
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12/28/18
10-Q
9/28/18
10-K
6/29/18
10-Q
3/30/18
10-Q
12/29/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Aviat Networks, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$27.44M	$31.35M	$35.5M	$39.82M	$44.27M	$48.75M	$53.19M	$57.49M	$61.54M	$65.25M	$68.52M	$685.2M
DCF		$27.26M	$26.84M	$26.18M	$25.31M	$24.24M	$23M	$21.61M	$20.12M	$18.55M	$16.94M	$169.4M
Value	$399.4M

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 53%

Earnings Stability -13%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	07-2015	06-2016	06-2017	06-2018	06-2019	07-2020	07-2021	06-2022	06-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-7.4%	-11%	-0.34%	0.76%	4%	0.11%	40%	7%	3.3%	3.5%
ROA	-11%	-17%	-0.36%	0.84%	0.98%	2.1%	7.5%	9.4%	7.2%	4.5%
ROE	-29%	-56%	-1.5%	3.2%	14%	0.37%	60%	10%	5.2%	5.3%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +9.21%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.76%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +4.68%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +1.79%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +15.5%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.73%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	07-2015	06-2016	06-2017	06-2018	06-2019	07-2020	07-2021	06-2022	06-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-0.71	-5.29	1.67	5.47	-3.91	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.89
Debt Equity	0.11	0.17	0.17	0.16	0.13	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	-	7.2%	100%	53%	26%	7.2%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.89.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.47.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.07.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	06-2016	06-2018	07-2020	06-2022	Trend
Revenue	3.7%	7.4%	13%	14%	3.5%
Net Income	-	44%	260%	-46%	-93%
Stockholders Equity	22%	31%	47%	9.1%	9.9%
FCF	-	-	-	-	1.7%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.4%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.46%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +44.26%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -93.01%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +30.79%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +9.94%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.72%.