Plastic Materials, Synth Resins & Nonvulcan Elastomers
Avient Corporation operates as a formulator of material solutions in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, South America, and Asia. It operates in two segments, Color, Additives and Inks; and Specialty Engineered Materials. The Color, Additives and Inks segment offers specialized color and additive concentrates in solid and liquid form for thermoplastics; dispersions for thermosets; and specialty inks. Its products are used in various markets, including medical, pharmaceutical devices, food packaging, personal care, cosmetics, transportation, building products, recreational, athletic apparel, construction, filtration, outdoor furniture, healthcare, wire, and cable. The Specialty Engineered Materials segment provides specialty polymer formulations, services, and solutions for designers, assemblers, and processors of thermoplastic materials; and long glass and carbon fiber technology to thermoset and thermoplastic composites. The company sells its products through direct sales personnel, distributors, and commissioned sales agents. The company was formerly known as PolyOne Corporation and changed its name to Avient Corporation in June 2020. Avient Corporation was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Avon Lake, Ohio.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Avient Corp
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $57.5M | $57.63M | $57.76M | $57.89M | $58.02M | $58.15M | $58.28M | $58.41M | $58.54M | $58.67M | $58.81M | $588.1M |
DCF | $50.11M | $43.67M | $38.06M | $33.17M | $28.91M | $25.2M | $21.96M | $19.14M | $16.68M | $14.54M | $145.4M | |
Value | $436.8M |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 4.3% | 4.9% | -1.8% | 4.5% | 21% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 21% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
ROA | 9.7% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 4% | 3.3% | 4% |
ROE | 21% | 23% | -9.6% | 30% | 56% | 7.7% | 13% | 30% | 3.2% | 4.5% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +9.5%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.27%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +5.61%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.93%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +23.18%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -5.84%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 8.69 | 9.43 | 11.04 | 7.83 | 5.76 | 12.10 | 14.13 | 7.57 | 25.79 | 36.82 |
Debt Equity | 1.68 | 1.78 | 2.26 | 2.57 | 1.20 | 1.12 | 1.05 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | -45% | 100% | 100% | 57% | 79% | 100% | 21% | -45% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 36.82.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 2.78.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.45.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
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Revenue | -0.86% | -2.3% | -1% | -7.5% | 0.67% |
Net Income | -11% | -14% | -17% | -89% | -4.8% |
Stockholders Equity | 18% | 34% | 11% | -0.63% | 3.9% |
FCF | -7% | -14% | -20% | -72% | -1.4% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is -2.32%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.67%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -13.85%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -4.76%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +34.03%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.94%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -14.29%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.4%.