Air Transport Services Group, Inc.

ATSG

Air Courier Services

Mkt Cap

$870.6M

PE

17.84

Debt

$1.773B

Cash

EV

FCF

-$112.8M

Market Cap

$870.6M

P/E Ratio

17.84

Debt

$1.773B

Cash

EV

FCF

-$112.8M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":29860000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":41222000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":23488000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":18495000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":69285000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":61202000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":32115000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":231420000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":198581000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":60327000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":589592000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":619264000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":768870000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1068200000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":892345000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1452183000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1570575000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1734282000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2045469000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2070611000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.050645191929334185},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.06656611719718893},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.030548727353128618},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.01731417337577233},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.07764373644722612},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.04214482609974087},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.02044792512296452},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.13343850654045883},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.09708335838871184},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.029134878545511445}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1031629000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1042263000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1259330000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1548844000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2470585000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2820178000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":3001745000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":3047713000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3589893000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":3882090000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":347489000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":364157000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":331902000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":395279000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":436438000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":460342000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":855497000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":899738000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1412506000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1368702000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.0859307776649045},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.11319842815049552},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.07076787726497581},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.046789735857457646},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.15875107117162118},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.13294898140947384},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.03753958225452573},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.25720820950098805},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.14058772139728964},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.04407606622917187}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.06369828688414149},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.07080266688925924},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.050620568079851984},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.06023524641603673},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.04706456163216404},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.06276093211137737},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.06875667320175431},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.1181197179655696},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.0856178721761345},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.05147536507396789}]}

Air Transport Services Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides aircraft leasing, and air cargo transportation and related services in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments: Cargo Aircraft Management Inc. (CAM), and ACMI Services. The company offers aircraft, flight crews, aircraft hull and liability insurance, and aviation fuel services; and aircraft maintenance and modification services, including airframe modification and heavy maintenance, component repairs, engineering services, and aircraft line maintenance. It also provides equipment maintenance services; cargo load transfer and package sorting services; crew training services; and airline express operation, line and heavy maintenance, and ground handling services. The company's ground support services include labor and management for cargo load transfer and sorting; design, installation, and maintenance of material handling equipment; leasing and maintenance of ground support equipment; and general facilities maintenance. In addition, it offers equipment installation and maintenance, vehicle maintenance and repair, jet fuel, and deicing services. Further, the company operates cargo and passenger transportation business; resells and brokers aircraft parts; and performs passenger-to-freighter and passenger-to-combi conversions of aircrafts. It provides its services to delivery companies, freight forwarders, airlines, air transportation, e-commerce, package delivery, and logistics industries, as well as government customers. As of December 31, 2022, the company's in-service aircraft fleet consisted of 111 owned Boeing aircraft and 17 leased aircraft. The company was formerly known as ABX Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Air Transport Services Group, Inc. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Ohio.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
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3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
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10-K
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10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 22%

Earnings Stability 36%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	6.7%	3.1%	1.7%	7.8%	4.2%	2%	13%	9.7%	2.9%	2.4%
ROA	7.1%	5.1%	6%	4.7%	6.3%	6.9%	12%	8.6%	5.1%	4.8%
ROE	11%	7.1%	4.7%	16%	13%	3.8%	26%	14%	4.4%	3.5%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +6.66%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.1%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7.23%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.4%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +12.85%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.95%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	23.49	-6.84	-8.62	280.02	-26.50	791.95	19.01	-11.54	-13.12	-15.71
Debt Equity	0.97	1.47	1.35	3.28	3.26	1.74	1.66	1.04	1.34	1.28
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	59%	100%	100%	65%	100%	100%	39%	39%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -15.71.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -62.68.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.39.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	15%	18%	9.7%	1.2%	-1.1%
Net Income	14%	-2.7%	23%	-70%	10%
Stockholders Equity	22%	26%	17%	-3.1%	3.6%
FCF	-	-	-	-	690%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +18.33%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.1%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -2.73%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +10.29%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +25.68%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.56%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +689.98%.