Array Technologies, Inc.

ARRY

Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries

Mkt Cap

$2.042B

PE

33.71

Debt

$722M

Cash

$287.6M

EV

$2.476B

FCF

$218.1M

Market Cap

$2.042B

P/E Ratio

33.71

Debt

$722M

Cash

$287.6M

EV

$2.476B

FCF

$218.1M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-60764000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":39745000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":59073000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-66118000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-43622000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":85549000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2018-12-30","value":290783000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":647899000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":872662000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":853318000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1637546000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1576551000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-0.20896682405780256},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.061344437944803126},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.06769287536296986},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-0.07748342353026656},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.026638640990848502},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.05426338887863444}],"Assets":[{"time":"2019-12-30","value":923581000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":656024000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1142979000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1706052000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1706741000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2018-12-30","value":264474000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":305151000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-80899000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-69205000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":124281000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":259248000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-0.22975415352737888},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.13024699247257915},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.7302068010729428},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.9553933964308937},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.35099492279592215},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.32998904523853606}],"ROA":[{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.09031043297772474},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.14513493408777728},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-0.021646066988107393},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.0029026078923737376},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.12545781697398728}]}

Array Technologies, Inc. manufactures and sells ground-mounting tracking systems used in solar energy projects in the United States, Spain, Brazil, Australia, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Array Legacy Operations and STI Operations. Its products include DuraTrack HZ v3, a single axis tracker; Array STI H250 to deliver a lower levelized cost of energy with tracker system; Array OmniTrack; and SmarTrack, a software product that uses site-specific historical weather and energy production data in combination with machine learning algorithms to identify the optimal position for a solar array in real time to enhance its energy production. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
10-Q
6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
10-Q
6/30/21
10-Q
3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Array Technologies, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$218.1M	$275.2M	$340.8M	$413.9M	$493M	$575.6M	$658.5M	$737.9M	$809.5M	$869M	$912.5M	$9.125B
DCF		$239.3M	$257.7M	$272.1M	$281.9M	$286.2M	$284.7M	$277.4M	$264.6M	$247M	$225.5M	$2.255B
Value	$4.892B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -22%

Earnings Stability -92%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-21%	6.1%	6.8%	-7.7%	-2.7%	5.4%	4.5%
ROA	-	9%	15%	-2.2%	-0.29%	13%	11%
ROE	-23%	13%	-73%	96%	-35%	33%	26%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -2.16%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.59%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +6.73%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.78%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +1.74%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +8.69%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	-	-3.76	-2.68	6.33	3.37	3.31
Debt Equity	-	0.51	-5.74	-10.34	6.66	2.79	3.12
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-520%	-400%	-	-520%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.31.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 3.04.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -5.21.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Data are missing

Years	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	40%	22%	-3.7%	-20%
Net Income	-	13%	-	-
Stockholders Equity	-0.4%	-	110%	23%
FCF	-	-	64%	-

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +40.23%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -19.59%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -0.4%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +23.3%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -.