Antero Resources Corp

AR

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Mkt Cap

$7.172B

PE

8.16

Debt

$1.607B

Cash

EV

$8.779B

FCF

$175.4M

Market Cap

$7.172B

P/E Ratio

8.16

Debt

$1.607B

Cash

EV

$8.779B

FCF

$175.4M

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates through three segments: Exploration, Development and Production of Natural Gas, NGLs and Oil; Marketing and Utilization of Excess Firm Transportation Capacity; and Midstream Services Through Our Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. As of December 31, 2022, the company had approximately 504,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and 174,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. It also owned and operated 620 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin; and 34 compressor stations. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
10-Q
6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
10-Q
6/30/21
10-Q
3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20
10-Q
6/30/20
10-Q
3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Antero Resources Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$175.4M	$228.1M	$290.1M	$361.1M	$439.3M	$522.3M	$606.4M	$687.3M	$759.8M	$818.9M	$859.9M	$8.599B
DCF		$198.3M	$219.4M	$237.4M	$251.2M	$259.7M	$262.2M	$258.4M	$248.4M	$232.8M	$212.5M	$2.125B
Value	$4.506B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 13%

Earnings Stability -45%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Net Margin	25%	24%	-49%	17%	-9.6%	-7.7%	-36%	-4%	27%	16%
ROA	11%	13%	-6.8%	4.8%	0.46%	-2.4%	-7.3%	0.17%	18%	9%
ROE	12%	13%	-11%	6.9%	-4.7%	-4.9%	-21%	-3.1%	27%	12%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -2.38%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.06%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +2.34%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +1.75%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +0.09%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +2.56%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Debt FCF	-1.41	-7.30	-54.38	-22.81	-42.47	-11.79	-21.64	2.25	0.56	9.16
Debt Equity	0.80	0.65	0.61	0.54	0.64	0.54	0.49	0.35	0.17	0.23
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-160%	100%	-170%	-	-	-	-	-170%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 9.16.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 6.89.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -1.69.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Data are missing

Years	12-2015	12-2017	12-2019	12-2021	Trend
Revenue	8.8%	14%	17%	55%	-4.7%
Net Income	11%	25%	-	-	-
Stockholders Equity	-0.54%	-4.6%	0.22%	16%	-5.3%
FCF	-	-	-	120%	-

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +14.32%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -4.71%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +25.29%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -4.59%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.27%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -.