Appfolio Inc

APPF

Services-Prepackaged Software

Mkt Cap

$6.766B

PE

-143.15

Debt

Cash

$60.19M

EV

FCF

$28.65M

Market Cap

$6.766B

P/E Ratio

-143.15

Debt

Cash

$60.19M

EV

FCF

$28.65M

AppFolio, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud business management solutions for the real estate industry. The company offers AppFolio Property Manager, a platform to leverage process automation, easy to use interface, and the optimization of common workflows for property management companies, as well as completes and records critical transactions in the system and give its customers access to the data they need to run their business; AppFolio Property Manager Plus, which offers customizable workflows that allow customers to digitize their existing processes, performance insights, intelligent revenue management, and integrations through selected partners and dedicated strategic account managers; and AppFolio Investment Management, a solution that is designed to enable real estate investment management organizations to manage investor relationships through enhancing transparency and streamlining certain business processes. It also provides value added services that are designed to enhance, automate, and streamline processes and workflows for property management businesses, such as electronic payment, tenant screening, and insurance services. AppFolio, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Santa Barbara, California.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
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6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
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6/30/21
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3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20
10-Q
6/30/20
10-Q
3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Appfolio Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$28.65M	$31.37M	$34.19M	$37.09M	$40.06M	$43.06M	$46.07M	$49.06M	$52M	$54.86M	$57.61M	$576.1M
DCF		$27.28M	$25.85M	$24.39M	$22.9M	$21.41M	$19.92M	$18.44M	$17M	$15.6M	$14.24M	$142.4M
Value	$349.4M

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 38%

Earnings Stability -52%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Net Margin	-18%	-21%	-7.8%	6.8%	11%	14%	51%	0.29%	-14%	-8.3%
ROA	-34%	-17%	-8.9%	8.9%	12%	2.5%	51%	0.42%	-18%	-11%
ROE	17%	-22%	-12%	11%	22%	27%	55%	0.35%	-26%	-18%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +11.4%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -2.85%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +9.4%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -3.35%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +15.13%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -6.33%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Data are missing

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Debt FCF	-	-	-	0.00	1.46	1.62	0.00	-	-	-
Debt Equity	0.00	-	-	0.00	0.54	0.38	0.00	-	-	-
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	-	100%	100%	1.4%	-100%	-100%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.02.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -1.04.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2015	12-2017	12-2019	12-2021	Trend
Revenue	30%	27%	23%	31%	-6%
Net Income	-	-	-	-	-36%
Stockholders Equity	20%	26%	26%	-11%	1.9%
FCF	-	-7.1%	-15%	-31%	-46%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +26.83%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.97%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -35.97%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +25.56%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.89%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -7.07%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -46.25%.