Household Appliances
A. O. Smith Corporation manufactures and markets residential and commercial gas, heat pump and electric water heaters, boilers, tanks, and water treatment products in North America, China, Europe, and India. It operates through two segments, North America and Rest of World. The company offers water heaters for residences, restaurants, hotels, office buildings, laundries, car washes, and small businesses; commercial boilers for hospitals, schools, hotels, and other large commercial buildings, as well as residential boilers for homes, apartments, and condominiums; and water treatment products comprising point-of-entry water softeners, well water solutions, and whole-home water filtration products, on-the-go filtration bottles, point-of-use carbon, and reverse osmosis products for residences, restaurants, hotels, and offices. It also provides commercial water treatment and filtration product; expansion tanks, commercial solar water heating systems, swimming pool and spa heaters, and related products and parts; and electric wall-hung, gas tankless, combi-boiler, and heat pump and solar water heaters. The company offers its products primarily under the A. O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, and water softener brands. It distributes its products through independent wholesale plumbing distributors, as well as through retail channels consisting of hardware and home center chains, and manufacturer representative firms; and offers Aquasana branded products directly to consumers through e-commerce. A. O. Smith Corporation was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Sector
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Smith A O Corp
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $573.1M | $628.5M | $685.9M | $745M | $805.4M | $866.6M | $927.8M | $988.6M | $1.048B | $1.106B | $1.161B | $11.61B |
DCF | $546.5M | $518.6M | $489.9M | $460.5M | $430.8M | $401.1M | $371.7M | $342.7M | $314.4M | $287.1M | $2.871B | |
Value | $7.034B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 11% | 12% | 9.9% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 6.3% | 14% | 15% |
ROA | 17% | 18% | 18% | 20% | 17% | 16% | 20% | 11% | 25% | 26% |
ROE | 20% | 22% | 18% | 26% | 22% | 19% | 27% | 13% | 30% | 31% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +12.12%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.4%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +18.15%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.3%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +22.83%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.1%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 0.96 | 0.90 | 1.80 | 0.61 | 0.74 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 1.10 | 0.23 | 0.21 |
Debt Equity | 0.18 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 59% | 100% | 59% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.21.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.02.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.59.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
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Revenue | 5.3% | 3.9% | 10% | 2.6% | -0.13% |
Net Income | 7.9% | 4.6% | 17% | 140% | 4.1% |
Stockholders Equity | 2.8% | 1.4% | -0.07% | 5.5% | -0.62% |
FCF | 7.2% | 10% | 5.8% | 86% | -0.45% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.86%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.13%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.61%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +4.05%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.44%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.62%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.45%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.45%.