Wholesale-Farm Product Raw Materials
The Andersons, Inc. operates in trade, renewables, and plant nutrient sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Trade, Renewables, and Plant Nutrient. The company's Trade segment operates grain elevators; stores commodities; and provides grain marketing, risk management, and origination services, as well as sells commodities, such as corn, soybeans, wheat, oats, and corn oil. This segment also engages in the commodity merchandising business, as well as offers logistics for physical commodities, such as whole grains, grain products, feed ingredients, domestic fuel products, and other agricultural commodities. Its Renewables segment produces, purchases, and sells ethanol, and co-products, as well as offers facility operations, risk management, and marketing services to the ethanol plants it invests in and operates. The company's Plant Nutrient segment manufactures, distributes, and retails agricultural and related plant nutrients, liquid industrial products, corncob-based products, and pelleted lime and gypsum products, as well as turf fertilizer, pesticide, and herbicide products; and crop nutrients, crop protection chemicals, and seed products, as well as provides application and agronomic services to commercial and family farmers. In addition, this segment produces corncob-based products for laboratory animal bedding and private-label cat litter, as well as absorbents, blast cleaners, carriers, and polishers; professional lawn care products for golf course and turf care markets; fertilizer and weed, and pest control products; pelleted lime, gypsum, and value add soil amendments; and micronutrients, and soil amendments, as well as industrial products comprising nitrogen reagents, calcium nitrate, deicers, and dust abatement products. The Andersons, Inc. was founded in 1947 and is based in Maumee, Ohio.
Sector
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Andersons, Inc.
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $888.9M | $1.156B | $1.47B | $1.83B | $2.226B | $2.646B | $3.073B | $3.482B | $3.85B | $4.149B | $4.357B | $43.57B |
DCF | $1.005B | $1.112B | $1.203B | $1.273B | $1.316B | $1.328B | $1.309B | $1.259B | $1.18B | $1.077B | $10.77B | |
Value | $22.83B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
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Net Margin | -240% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.18% | -0.17% | 0.82% | 0.76% | 0.69% | 1.2% |
ROA | -0.49% | 0.96% | -0.95% | 2.2% | 0.72% | -0.57% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 7.6% |
ROE | -1.7% | 1.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 1.3% | -1.2% | 8% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 11% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.61%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.02%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +2.42%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.73%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +4.75%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.22%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
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Debt FCF | 5.68 | -11.65 | 11.62 | -4.06 | 6.34 | -8.71 | -8.69 | 4.28 | 0.76 | 0.66 |
Debt Equity | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.82 | 0.97 | 1.14 | 0.84 | 0.54 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 47% | -43% | 100% | 100% | 100% | -43% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.66.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.51.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.43.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
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Revenue | 21% | 37% | 22% | -15% | -3.6K% |
Net Income | 36% | 20% | - | -23% | -26% |
Stockholders Equity | 9.7% | 12% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 1.3% |
FCF | - | - | - | 350% | - |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +37.1%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -3.59K%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +19.67%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -26.38%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +11.58%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.28%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -.