Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
ALRM
Services-Prepackaged Software
Mkt Cap
$3.355BPE
37.47Debt
-Cash
$753.1MEV
-FCF
$181.2MP/E Ratio
37.47Debt
-Cash
$753.1MEV
-FCF
$181.2MCharts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":563000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-7219000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":10142000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":29238000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":21521000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":53330000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":76660000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":51175000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":55631000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":80340000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":167312000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":208888000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":261106000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":338937000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":420494000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":502363000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":618003000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":748969000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":842559000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":881682000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.003364970832934876},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.03455918961357282},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.038842462448201116},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.08626381893980298},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.051180278434412856},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.10615829589360681},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.12404470528460218},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.06832726054082346},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.06602623673831744},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.09112128862787264}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":120932000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":226095000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":261245000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":371641000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":440985000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":557799000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":731687000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1232015000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1329375000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1439563000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-121844000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":170131000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":191249000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":232827000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":277589000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":355651000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":467752000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":613167000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":598859000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":688546000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.004620662486458094},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.04243200827597557},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.05303034264231447},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.12557821902098984},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.07752828822467749},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.1499503726968292},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.16389026663702133},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.08346013402547756},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.09289498863672417},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.1166806575014596}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.17365130817318825},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.07957274596961454},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.05504794350131103},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.0898017172486351},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.02766987539258705},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.1055864209150608},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.10955504197833227},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.049976664245159355},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.04257113305124589},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.06795465012646199}]}
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides various Internet of Things (IoT) and solutions for residential, multi-family, small business, and enterprise commercial markets in North America and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other. It offers solutions to control and monitor security systems, as well as to IoT devices, including door locks, garage doors, thermostats, and video cameras; and video monitoring and analytics solutions, such as escalated events, video doorbells, intelligent integration, live streaming, secure cloud storage, and video alerts. The company also provides scenes, video analytics triggers, thermostat schedules, responsive savings, precision comfort, energy usage monitoring, places feature, demand response programs, whole home water safety, and solar monitoring solutions, as well as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning monitoring services. In addition, it offers commercial grade video, commercial video analytics, access control, enterprise dashboard and multi-site management, energy savings, protection for valuables and inventory, temperature monitoring, and daily safeguard solutions. Further, the company provides a permission-based online portal that provides account management, sales, marketing, training, and support tools; a unified interface that displays key operational and customer experience indicators, including technician performance, system reliability and customer engagement metrics; installation and support services; MobileTech Application and Remote Toolkit; video health reports; smart gateway; AI-powered enhancements to professional monitoring and false alarm reduction; Web services and business intelligence; sales, marketing, and training services; and home builder programs. Additionally, it offers electric utility grid and water management, indoor gunshot detection, and health and wellness and data-rich emergency response solutions. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Tysons, Virginia.
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DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $181.2M | $226.5M | $278.1M | $335.4M | $396.9M | $460.9M | $525M | $586.3M | $641.7M | $688M | $722.4M | $7.224B |
| DCF | $196.9M | $210.3M | $220.5M | $226.9M | $229.2M | $227M | $220.4M | $209.8M | $195.6M | $178.6M | $1.786B | |
| Value | $3.901B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 27%
Earnings Stability 60%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | -3.5% | 3.9% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 11% | 12% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 10% |
| ROA | 8% | 5.5% | 9% | 2.8% | 11% | 11% | 5% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% |
| ROE | -4.2% | 5.3% | 13% | 7.8% | 15% | 16% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 12% | 12% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +8.45%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.07%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +6.72%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.13%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +11.41%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.16%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 0.40 | 0.79 | 1.52 | 1.35 | 2.27 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - |
| Debt Equity | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.24 | - | - | - | - |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 100% | 92% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.03.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.92.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19% | 16% | 13% | 4.6% | -2.3% |
| Net Income | 34% | 30% | 1.6% | 44% | -19% |
| Stockholders Equity | 20% | 20% | 14% | 15% | -0.76% |
| FCF | 48% | 21% | 14% | 350% | 5% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +15.96%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.28%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +30.14%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -19.37%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +19.92%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.76%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +20.92%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +5.03%.