Allegion Plc

ALLE

Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services

Mkt Cap

$10.57B

PE

19.55

Debt

$2.436B

Cash

$391.8M

EV

$12.62B

FCF

$493.6M

Market Cap

$10.57B

P/E Ratio

19.55

Debt

$2.436B

Cash

$391.8M

EV

$12.62B

FCF

$493.6M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":172600000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":153900000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":229100000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":273300000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":434900000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":401800000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":314300000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":483000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":458000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":540400000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":2118300000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":2068100000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":2238000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":2408200000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2731700000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2854000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2719900000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2867400000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3271900000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":3650800000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.08148043242222537},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.0744161307480296},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.10236818588025022},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.11348725188937796},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.1592048907273859},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.14078486334968465},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.11555571896025589},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.16844528143963172},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.13997982823435923},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.14802235126547605}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":2015900000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":2285300000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":2247400000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":2542000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2810200000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2967200000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":3069400000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":3051000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3991200000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":4311500000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":18500000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":29700000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":116400000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":405500000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":654000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":760400000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":832600000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":762400000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":944500000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1318300000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":9.32972972972973},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":5.181818181818182},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1.9682130584192439},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.6739827373612823},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.6649847094801223},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.5284061020515518},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.37749219312995436},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.6335257082896117},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.4849126521969296},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.4099218690738072}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.16186318765811797},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.15691594101430884},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.18932989232001424},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.1920535011801731},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.1871041207031528},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.1904489080614721},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.13145891705219262},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.17377908882333662},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.14692323110843855},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.16430476632262553}]}

Allegion plc manufactures and sells mechanical and electronic security products and solutions worldwide. The company offers door controls and systems and exit devices; locks, locksets, portable locks, and key systems and services; electronic security products and access control systems; time, attendance, and workforce productivity systems; doors, accessories, and other. It also provides services and software, which includes inspection, maintenance, and repair services for its automatic entrance solutions; and software as a service, including access control, IoT integration, and workforce management solutions, as well as aftermarket services, design and installation offerings, and locksmith services. The company sells its products and solutions to end-users in commercial, institutional, and residential facilities, including education, healthcare, government, hospitality, commercial office, and single and multi-family residential markets under the CISA, Interflex, LCN, Schlage, SimonsVoss, and Von Duprin brands. It sells its products and solutions through distribution and retail channels, such as specialty distribution, e-commerce, and wholesalers, as well as through various retail channels comprising do-it-yourself home improvement centers, on-line and e-commerce platforms, and small specialty showroom outlets. Allegion plc was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
10-Q
6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
10-Q
6/30/21
10-Q
3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20
10-Q
6/30/20
10-Q
3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Allegion Plc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$493.6M	$538.9M	$585.9M	$634.2M	$683.6M	$733.7M	$784M	$834.1M	$883.5M	$931.8M	$978.4M	$9.784B
DCF		$468.6M	$443M	$417M	$390.9M	$364.8M	$338.9M	$313.6M	$288.8M	$264.9M	$241.8M	$2.418B
Value	$5.951B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 14%

Earnings Stability 78%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	7.4%	10%	11%	16%	14%	12%	17%	14%	15%	15%
ROA	16%	19%	19%	19%	19%	13%	17%	15%	16%	17%
ROE	520%	200%	67%	66%	53%	38%	63%	48%	41%	40%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +14.53%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.02%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +16.57%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.58%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +51.65%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -3.29%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	6.95	4.37	5.13	3.65	3.41	3.25	3.30	5.36	4.72	4.94
Debt Equity	52.03	12.58	3.77	2.28	1.89	1.73	1.92	2.24	1.85	1.80
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	85%	100%	100%	100%	85%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 4.94.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.32.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.85.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	7.2%	6%	10%	12%	0.85%
Net Income	13%	4.4%	20%	18%	-0.98%
Stockholders Equity	41%	15%	17%	40%	-24%
FCF	6.4%	4.8%	5.2%	31%	-1.7%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.97%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.85%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.44%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.98%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +15.05%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -24.22%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.79%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.68%.