Allstate Corp

ALL

Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

Mkt Cap

$43.41B

PE

35.61

Debt

$7.938B

Cash

$850M

EV

$50.5B

FCF

$5.064B

Market Cap

$43.41B

P/E Ratio

35.61

Debt

$7.938B

Cash

$850M

EV

$50.5B

FCF

$5.064B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":2746000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":2055000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1761000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":3073000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2104000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":4678000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":5461000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1485000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-1416000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-316000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":35239000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":35653000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":36534000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":38524000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":39815000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":44675000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":44791000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":50588000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":51412000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":57094000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.07792502624932603},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.057638908366757356},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.04820167515191329},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.07976845602741148},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.052844405374858724},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.10471180749860101},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.12192181465026457},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.029354787696686962},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.02754220804481444},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.0055347321960276035}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":108533000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":104656000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":108610000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":112422000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":112249000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":119950000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":125987000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":99440000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":97957000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":103362000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":22304000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":20025000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":20573000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":22551000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":21312000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":25998000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":30217000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":25179000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":17475000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":17770000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.12311692969870876},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.10262172284644194},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.08559762795897535},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.13626890160081592},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.09872372372372372},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.1799369182244788},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.18072608134493828},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.05897771952817824},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.08103004291845493},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.01778277996623523}],"ROA":[]}

The Allstate Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty, and other insurance products in the United States and Canada. The company operates through Allstate Protection; Protection Services; Allstate Health and Benefits; and Run-off Property-Liability segments. The Allstate Protection segment offers private passenger auto and homeowners insurance; other personal lines products; and commercial lines products under the Allstate and Encompass brand names. The Protection Services segment provides consumer product protection plans and related technical support for mobile phones, consumer electronics, furniture, and appliances; finance and insurance products, including vehicle service contracts, guaranteed asset protection waivers, road hazard tire and wheel, and paint and fabric protection; towing, jump-start, lockout, fuel delivery, and tire change services; device and mobile data collection services; data and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information; and identity protection services. This segment offers its products under various brands, including Allstate Protection Plans, Allstate Dealer Services, Allstate Roadside, Arity, Avail, and Allstate Identity Protection. The Allstate Health and Benefits segment provides life, accident, critical illness, short-term disability, and other health insurance products; stop-loss and fully insured group health products to employers; and short-term medical and medicare supplement insurance to individuals. The Run-off Property-Liability segment offers property and casualty insurance. It sells its products through agents, independent agents, call centers, retailers, voluntary benefits brokers, strategic partners, financial specialists, wholesale partners, and affinity groups, as well as through online and mobile applications. The company was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
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12/31/22
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12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Allstate Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$5.064B	$5.265B	$5.474B	$5.692B	$5.918B	$6.153B	$6.398B	$6.652B	$6.916B	$7.191B	$7.476B	$74.76B
DCF		$4.578B	$4.139B	$3.742B	$3.384B	$3.059B	$2.766B	$2.501B	$2.261B	$2.044B	$1.848B	$18.48B
Value	$48.8B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 2.5%

Earnings Stability -14%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Data are missing

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	5.8%	4.8%	8%	5.3%	10%	12%	2.9%	-2.8%	-0.55%	2.1%
ROA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
ROE	10%	8.6%	14%	9.9%	18%	18%	5.9%	-8.1%	-1.8%	6.5%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +4.6%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -2.23%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +6.99%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -4.25%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	1.56	1.74	1.60	1.33	1.42	1.52	1.67	1.70	2.02	1.57
Debt Equity	0.26	0.31	0.28	0.31	0.26	0.26	0.32	0.46	0.45	0.43
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	92%	100%	100%	36%	-37%	-17%	-37%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.57.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.13.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.37.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	6.6%	7.5%	8.4%	11%	0.81%
Net Income	-	-	-	-	-1.2%
Stockholders Equity	-2.1%	-3.6%	-16%	1.7%	-1.4%
FCF	1.1%	-4.2%	-8.6%	-16%	-3.3%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.48%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.81%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.18%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -3.57%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.39%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -4.16%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -3.26%.