Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Consumer Discretionary
Air Freight/Delivery Services
www.alaskaair.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $6.14B
PE 16
Debt $5.45B
Cash $1.26B
EV $10.34B
FCF $1.17B

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$395.00M
EBIT	$570.00M
ROE	9%
ROA	3%
FCF	$1.17B
Equity	$4.37B
Growth Stability	-177%
PE	15.55
PEG	0.87
PB	1.4
P/FCF	5.24
P/S	0.52
Price/Cash	0.2
Debt/Equity	1.25
Debt/FCF	4.65
Net Margins	3%
Op. Margins	5%
Earnings CAGR	-15%
Sales Growth YoY	38%
Sales Growth QoQ	15%
Sales CAGR	39%
FCF CAGR	-2%
Equity CAGR	5%
Earnings Stability	0.25
Earnings Growth YoY	-4K%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-70%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	18%
Sales CAGR 5Y	24%
FCF CAGR 5Y	1%
Equity CAGR 5Y	5%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	14%
Sales CAGR 3Y	14%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-4%
Equity CAGR 3Y	7%
Market Cap	$6.14B
Revenue	$11.74B
Assets	$19.77B
Total Debt	$5.45B
Cash	$1.26B
Shares Outstanding	123.12M
EV	10.34B
Earnings Score	4%
Moat Score	62%
Safety Score	53%
Final Score	40%
Working Capital	-2.39B
Current Ratio	0.61
Shares Growth 3y	-0%
Equity Growth QoQ	-2%
Equity Growth YoY	6%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Alaska Air Group Inc operates two airlines, Alaska and Horizon in three operating segments. The Mainline segment includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo throughout the U.S., and in parts of Mexico, and Costa Rica. The Regional segment includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers' scheduled air transportation for passengers across a shorter distance network within the U.S. and Canada under capacity purchase agreements (CPA). The Horizon segment includes the capacity sold to Alaska under a CPA. It earns revenues from Passenger tickets, including ticket breakage and net of taxes and fees, Passenger ancillary and Mileage Plan passenger revenue.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Alaska Air Group, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Alaska Air Group, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR -15%

Stability 25%

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Alaska Air Group, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Alaska Air Group, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $10B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$1.2B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1B	$1B	$995M	$975M	$956M	$9.6B
DCF		$1B	$929M	$828M	$737M	$657M	$585M	$521M	$464M	$414M	$368M	$3.7B
Value	$10B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Net Margins	-	-	-	5%	9%	-37%	8%	1%	2%	3%	3%
ROA	-	14%	12%	6%	8%	-12%	5%	1%	3%	3%	3%
ROE	-	28%	28%	12%	18%	-44%	13%	2%	6%	9%	9%

Bad Net Margins (3.37%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	4.66	5.12	11.06	1.7	-10.6	3.96	-9.68	-6.39	4.65	4.65
Debt over Equity	0.33	1.12	0.78	0.69	0.4	1.56	0.77	0.64	0.69	1.25	1.25
Growth Stability	-	-	-	49%	100%	-177%	-	-	-	100%	-177%

Bad Debt/FCF ratio (4.65)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Neutral Debt/Equity ratio (1.25)

The company has a balance between equity and debt that is not too good nor too bad.

Bad Graham’s Stability (-177%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-	-	-	6%	-59%	73%	56%	8%	13%	24%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-4%	27%	-58%	76%	-272%	-136%	-88%	305%	68%	18%
Equity YoY growth	-	22%	27%	1%	15%	-31%	27%	0%	8%	6%	5%
FCF YoY growth	-	-6%	-20%	-58%	337%	-143%	-268%	-134%	75%	-364%	1%