Align Technology Inc
ALGN
Orthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies
Mkt Cap
$19.04BPE
41.18Debt
-Cash
$866.9MEV
-FCF
$491.6MP/E Ratio
41.18Debt
-Cash
$866.9MEV
-FCF
$491.6MCharts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":145832000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":144020000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":189682000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":231418000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":400235000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":442776000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1775888000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":772020000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":361573000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":445053000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":761653000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":845486000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1079874000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1473413000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1966492000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2406796000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2471941000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":3952584000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3734635000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":3862260000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.19146776813063165},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.17033989918224549},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.1756519742118062},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.15706254797534702},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.2035273980265366},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.18396906094243134},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.7184184412168413},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.1953203271581325},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.09681615472462503},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.11523123766913672}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":987997000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1158633000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1396151000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1777856000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2052458000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2500702000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":4829683000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":5942110000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":5947947000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":6083877000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":752771000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":847926000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":995389000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1150370000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1252891000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1346169000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":3233865000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":3622714000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3601358000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":3630489000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.19372691030871275},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.16984972745263147},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.19056067527368697},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.2011683197579909},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.31944917794125743},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.32891561163568617},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.5491534124028059},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.2131054231716884},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10039907168351495},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.12258761836215452}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.1959277204283009},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.16280737731447317},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.17829088687398426},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.19889743601281543},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.22731963333719862},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.22499722078040485},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.0801648886686766},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.17038105992652441},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10803643677389863},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.10574474138776968}]}
Align Technology, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets Invisalign clear aligners, and iTero intraoral scanners and services for orthodontists and general practitioner dentists in the United States, Switzerland, China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Clear Aligner; and Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services (Systems and Services). The Clear Aligner segment offers comprehensive products, including Invisalign comprehensive package that addresses the orthodontic needs of teenage patients, such as mandibular advancement, compliance indicators, and compensation for tooth eruption; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients generally between the ages of seven and ten years, which is a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth. This segment's non-comprehensive products comprise Invisalign moderate, lite and express packages, and Invisalign go and Invisalign Go Plus; and non-case products that include retention products, Invisalign training, and adjusting tools used by dental professionals during the course of treatment. The Systems and Services segment offers iTero intraoral scanning system, a single hardware platform with software options for restorative or orthodontic procedures; restorative software for general practitioner dentists, prosthodontists, periodontists, and oral surgeons; and software for orthodontists for digital records storage, orthodontic diagnosis, and for the fabrication of printed models and retainers. This segment also provides Invisalign outcome simulator, a chair-side and cloud-based application for the iTero scanner; Invisalign progress assessment tool; and TimeLapse technology, which allows doctors or practitioners to compare a patient's historic 3D scans to the present-day scan, as well as subscription software, disposables, rentals, leases, and pay per scan services Align Technology, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Align Technology Inc
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $491.6M | $578.3M | $672.3M | $772M | $875.7M | $981M | $1.085B | $1.185B | $1.278B | $1.36B | $1.428B | $14.28B |
| DCF | $502.9M | $508.3M | $507.6M | $500.7M | $487.7M | $469.2M | $445.6M | $417.7M | $386.5M | $352.9M | $3.529B | |
| Value | $8.108B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 18%
Earnings Stability 36%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 17% | 18% | 16% | 20% | 18% | 72% | 20% | 9.7% | 12% | 12% |
| ROA | 16% | 18% | 20% | 23% | 22% | 8% | 17% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| ROE | 17% | 19% | 20% | 32% | 33% | 55% | 21% | 10% | 12% | 12% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +25.22%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -3.5%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +15.28%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -2.48%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +27.23%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -5.73%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Debt Equity | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 88% | 36% | 46% | 36% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.36.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20% | 14% | 16% | 3.4% | -1.9% |
| Net Income | 13% | 2.1% | -37% | 23% | -1.4% |
| Stockholders Equity | 20% | 24% | 3.9% | 0.81% | 0.38% |
| FCF | 19% | 13% | 6.2% | 120% | 5.2% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +14.45%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.9%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +2.15%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.44%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +23.71%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.38%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +12.91%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +5.21%.