Farm Machinery & Equipment
Alamo Group Inc. designs, manufactures, distributes, and services vegetation management and infrastructure maintenance equipment for governmental, industrial, and agricultural uses worldwide. It operates through two segments, Vegetation Management and Industrial Equipment. Its Vegetation Management Division segment offers hydraulically-powered and tractor - and off-road chassis mounted mowers, other cutters and replacement parts for heavy-duty and intensive uses and heavy duty, tractor- and truck-mounted mowing and vegetation maintenance equipment, and replacement parts. This segment also provides rotary and finishing mowers, flail and disc mowers, front-end loaders, backhoes, rotary tillers, posthole diggers, scraper blades and replacement parts, zero turn radius mowers, cutting parts, plain and hard-faced replacement tillage tools, disc blades, and fertilizer application components; aftermarket agricultural parts, heavy-duty mechanical rotary mowers, snow blowers, rock removal equipment, tractor attachments, agricultural implements, hydraulic and boom-mounted hedge and grass cutters, hedgerow cutters, industrial grass mowers, agricultural seedbed preparation cultivators, self-propelled sprayers and multi-drive load-carrying vehicles, and cutting blades. The company's Industrial Equipment Division segment offers truck-mounted air vacuum, mechanical broom, and regenerative air sweepers, pothole patchers, leaf collection equipment and replacement brooms, parking lot and street sweepers, excavators, catch basin cleaners, and roadway debris vacuum systems, as well as truck-mounted vacuum machines, combination sewer cleaners, and hydro excavators. This segment also offers ice control products, snowplows and heavy duty snow removal equipment, hitches, attachments, and graders; and public works and runway maintenance products, parts, and services, and high pressure cleaning systems and trenchers. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Seguin, Texas.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Alamo Group Inc
Growth
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%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $95.67M | $106M | $116.8M | $128M | $139.4M | $150.8M | $162.3M | $173.6M | $184.5M | $194.9M | $204.6M | $2.046B |
DCF | $92.21M | $88.34M | $84.15M | $79.67M | $74.99M | $70.16M | $65.25M | $60.31M | $55.4M | $50.58M | $505.8M | |
Value | $1.227B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% |
ROA | 12% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 11% | 14% | 13% |
ROE | 12% | 10% | 9.9% | 14% | 11% | 9.1% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 14% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +6.43%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.24%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +10.9%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.34%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +12.25%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.25%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 3.89 | 1.07 | 1.05 | -6.25 | 8.05 | 1.80 | 11.66 | -19.08 | 2.68 | 3.52 |
Debt Equity | 0.40 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.81 | 0.48 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.27 | 0.35 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 94% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.52.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.77.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.94.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 10% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 1.4% |
Net Income | 19% | 13% | 34% | 34% | 3.4% |
Stockholders Equity | 13% | 13% | 14% | 19% | 0.83% |
FCF | 5.1% | - | -18% | - | -8% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.87%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.44%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +13.13%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.39%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +12.95%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.83%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -7.99%.