Air Lease Corp

Consumer Discretionary
Diversified Commercial Services
www.airleasecorp.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $5.63B
PE 11
Debt $20.35B
Cash $465.35M
EV $25.52B
FCF $1.33B

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$490.15M
EBIT	$659.70M
ROE	6%
ROA	2%
FCF	$1.33B
Equity	$7.68B
Growth Stability	-28%
PE	11.49
PEG	-34.35
PB	0.73
P/FCF	4.24
P/S	2.06
Price/Cash	0.08
Debt/Equity	2.65
Debt/FCF	15.33
Net Margins	14%
Op. Margins	24%
Earnings CAGR	2%
Sales Growth YoY	5%
Sales Growth QoQ	3%
Sales CAGR	9%
FCF CAGR	6%
Equity CAGR	12%
Earnings Stability	0.04
Earnings Growth YoY	-25%
Earnings Growth QoQ	1%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	-0%
Sales CAGR 5Y	8%
FCF CAGR 5Y	8%
Equity CAGR 5Y	5%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	10%
Sales CAGR 3Y	10%
FCF CAGR 3Y	7%
Equity CAGR 3Y	5%
Market Cap	$5.63B
Revenue	$2.74B
Dividend Yield	2%
Payout Ratio	19%
Assets	$32.15B
Total Debt	$20.35B
Cash	$465.35M
Shares Outstanding	111.31M
EV	25.52B
Earnings Score	6%
Moat Score	63%
Safety Score	36%
Final Score	35%
Shares Growth 3y	-0%
Equity Growth QoQ	5%
Equity Growth YoY	10%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Air Lease Corp is an aircraft leasing company based in the United States. However, it derives most of its revenue from the Asia region. Its business involves purchasing aircraft from renowned manufacturers such as The Boeing Company (Boeing) and Airbus S.A.S and leasing them to airline companies across the world. Its suite of aircraft entails single-aisle narrow-bodied jets and twin-aisle wide-bodied aircraft. The company's primary source of revenue originates from the leasing of aircraft and to a certain extent from the provision of fleet management services to investors and owners of aircraft portfolios.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Air Lease Corp (AL) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Air Lease Corp compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Air Lease Corp compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 2%

Stability 4%

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Air Lease Corp Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Air Lease Corp.

Years

Calculation mode

= $20B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.6B	$1.7B	$1.8B	$1.9B	$2B	$2.1B	$2.3B	$2.4B	$24B
DCF		$1.3B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1B	$990M	$955M	$920M	$9.2B
Value	$20B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	24%	21%	26%	50%	30%	29%	25%	20%	-6%	21%	14%
ROA	-	5%	4%	4%	3%	3%	3%	2%	-0%	2%	2%
ROE	-	8%	11%	18%	11%	10%	8%	6%	-2%	8%	6%

Good Net Margins (13.83%)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	-6.24	10.88	11.11	12.07	12.46	17.97	15	16.15	13.43	15.33
Debt over Equity	2.43	2.58	2.6	2.37	2.43	2.44	2.75	2.45	2.83	2.7	2.65
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	82%	77%	-28%	100%	-28%

Bad Debt/FCF ratio (15.33)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Bad Debt/Equity ratio (2.65)

The company is overleveraged and has a bad balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (-28%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	16%	16%	7%	11%	20%	-0%	4%	11%	16%	8%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-1%	48%	102%	-32%	13%	-13%	-19%	-134%	-513%	-0%
Equity YoY growth	-	9%	12%	22%	16%	17%	8%	15%	-5%	8%	5%
FCF YoY growth	-	56%	-165%	9%	10%	14%	-16%	23%	2%	24%	8%