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Aar Corp

AIR

Aircraft & Parts

Mkt Cap

$2.481B

PE

41.49

Debt

$274.7M

Cash

$83.6M

EV

$2.672B

FCF

$35.4M

Market Cap

$2.481B

P/E Ratio

41.49

Debt

$274.7M

Cash

$83.6M

EV

$2.672B

FCF

$35.4M
Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":9900000},{"time":"2016-05-30","value":47200000},{"time":"2017-05-30","value":56500000},{"time":"2018-05-30","value":15600000},{"time":"2019-05-30","value":7500000},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":4400000},{"time":"2021-05-30","value":35400000},{"time":"2022-05-30","value":78100000},{"time":"2023-05-30","value":89100000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":1594300000},{"time":"2016-05-30","value":1662600000},{"time":"2017-05-30","value":1767600000},{"time":"2018-05-30","value":1748300000},{"time":"2019-05-30","value":2051800000},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":2072000000},{"time":"2021-05-30","value":1652300000},{"time":"2022-05-30","value":1820000000},{"time":"2023-05-30","value":1990500000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":0.006209621777582638},{"time":"2016-05-30","value":0.02838926981835679},{"time":"2017-05-30","value":0.031964245304367506},{"time":"2018-05-30","value":0.008922953726477148},{"time":"2019-05-30","value":0.003655327029924944},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":0.0021235521235521237},{"time":"2021-05-30","value":0.021424680748048177},{"time":"2022-05-30","value":0.042912087912087914},{"time":"2023-05-30","value":0.04476262245666918}],"Assets":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":1515000000},{"time":"2016-05-30","value":1442100000},{"time":"2017-05-30","value":1504100000},{"time":"2018-05-30","value":1524700000},{"time":"2019-05-30","value":1517200000},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":2079000000},{"time":"2021-05-30","value":1539700000},{"time":"2022-05-30","value":1573900000},{"time":"2023-05-30","value":1833100000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":845100000},{"time":"2016-05-30","value":865800000},{"time":"2017-05-30","value":914200000},{"time":"2018-05-30","value":936300000},{"time":"2019-05-30","value":905900000},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":902600000},{"time":"2021-05-30","value":974400000},{"time":"2022-05-30","value":1034500000},{"time":"2023-05-30","value":1099100000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2015-05-30","value":0.011714589989350373},{"time":"2016-05-30","value":0.05451605451605451},{"time":"2017-05-30","value":0.061802669000218774},{"time":"2018-05-30","value":0.016661326497917333},{"time":"2019-05-30","value":0.008279059498840932},{"time":"2020-05-30","value":0.004874806115665854},{"time":"2021-05-30","value":0.03633004926108374},{"time":"2022-05-30","value":0.07549540840985984},{"time":"2023-05-30","value":0.08106632699481393}],"ROA":[]}

AAR Corp. provides products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets worldwide. The Aviation Services segment offers aftermarket support and services; inventory management and distribution services; and maintenance, repair, and overhaul, as well as engineering services. This segment also sells and leases new, overhauled, and repaired engine and airframe parts, and components; and provides inventory and repair programs, warranty claim management, and outsourcing programs for engine and airframe parts and components, as well as performance-based supply chain logistics programs in support of the U.S. department of defense and foreign governments. In addition, it offers airframe inspection, maintenance, repair and overhaul, painting, line maintenance, airframe modification, structural repair, avionic and installation, exterior and interior refurbishment, and engineering and support services; and repairs and overhauls components, landing gears, wheels, and brakes. The Expeditionary Services segment provides products and services supporting the movement of equipment and personnel by the U.S. and foreign governments, and non-governmental organizations. This segment also designs, manufactures, and repairs transportation pallets, and various containers and shelters; and provides engineering, design, and system integration services for command and control systems. The company serves domestic and foreign passenger airlines; domestic and foreign cargo airlines; regional and commuter airlines; business and general aviation operators; original equipment manufacturers; aircraft leasing companies; aftermarket aviation support companies; and domestic and foreign military customers. It primarily markets and sells products and services through its employees and foreign sales representatives. AAR Corp. was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Wood Dale, Illinois.

Sector

    Growth

    %

    %

    Discount

    %

    %

    Multiple

    g\r+10%+11%+12%+13%+14%
    0%109887
    +1%1110988
    +2%13111098
    +3%141311109
    +4%1714121110
    Years012345678910TV
    FCF$35.4M$39.88M$44.58M$49.46M$54.46M$59.49M$64.49M$69.36M$74M$78.33M$82.25M$822.5M
    DCF$34.68M$33.71M$32.52M$31.14M$29.58M$27.88M$26.07M$24.19M$22.27M$20.33M$203.3M
    Value$485.7M

    In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

    Earnings Growth 13%
    Earnings Stability 0.83%

    Competitiveness and MOAT

    High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

    Years05-201505-201605-201705-201805-201905-202005-202105-202205-2023TTM
    Net Margin0.62%2.8%3.2%0.89%0.37%0.21%2.1%4.3%4.5%2.7%
    ROA----------
    ROE1.2%5.5%6.2%1.7%0.83%0.49%3.6%7.5%8.1%5.1%

    What is the average Net Margin?

    The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.06%.

    What is the trend of Net Margin?

    The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.9%.

    What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

    The average ROA over the past 5 years is -.

    What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

    The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -.

    What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

    The average ROE over the past 5 years is +3.71%.

    What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

    The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.59%.

    Safety & Stabiliy

    Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

    Years05-201505-201605-201705-201805-201905-202005-202105-202205-2023TTM
    Debt FCF--2.60-16.734.752.86-14.051.381.36-47.327.76
    Debt Equity0.180.170.170.190.160.660.140.100.250.24
    MIN
    Graham Stability---41%19%17%100%100%100%17%

    What is the Debt/FCF?

    The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 7.76.

    What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

    The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -7.13.

    What is the Graham’s Stability?

    Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.17.

    Growth

    Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

    Years05-201605-201805-202005-2022Trend
    Revenue2.6%2.6%-1.3%9.4%-0.23%
    Net Income9.5%42%170%14%3.7%
    Stockholders Equity3.5%3.3%6.8%6.2%0.58%
    FCF-----19%

    What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

    The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +2.63%.

    What is the trend of Revenue growth?

    The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.23%.

    What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

    The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +41.69%.

    What is the trend of Earnings growth?

    The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.66%.

    What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

    The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.26%.

    What is the trend of Equity growth?

    The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.58%.

    What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

    The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

    What is the trend of FCF growth?

    The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -19.37%.