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American Financial Group Inc

AFG

Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

Mkt Cap

$10.43B

PE

12.06

Debt

$1.498B

Cash

$1.221B

EV

$10.71B

FCF

-

Market Cap

$10.43B

P/E Ratio

12.06

Debt

$1.498B

Cash

$1.221B

EV

$10.71B

FCF

-
Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":406000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":352000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":649000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":475000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":517000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":869000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":721000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1995000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":898000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":5713000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":6145000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":6498000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":6865000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":7150000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":8237000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":7909000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":6552000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":7040000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.07106598984771574},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.05728234336859235},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.09987688519544476},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.06919155134741442},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.07230769230769231},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.10549957508801748},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.0911619673789354},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.30448717948717946},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.1275568181818182}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":47535000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":49859000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":55072000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":60658000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":63456000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":70130000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":73566000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":28931000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":28831000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":5054000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":4770000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":4919000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":5331000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":4972000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":6269000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":6789000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":5012000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":4052000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.08033240997229917},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.07379454926624739},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.13193738564748933},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.08910148189833052},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.10398230088495575},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.13861859945764876},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.10620120783620562},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.39804469273743015},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.22161895360315895}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.014704954244241085},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.012816141519083816},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.01568855316676351},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.01333707013089782},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.0110470247100353},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.01676885783544845},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.012723268901394667},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.04614427430783589},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.03895112899309771}]}

American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property and specialty transportation coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers' compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. The company sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. American Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

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In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 15%
Earnings Stability 33%


Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years12-201412-201512-201612-201712-201812-201912-202012-202112-2022TTM
Net Margin7.1%5.7%10%6.9%7.2%11%9.1%30%13%11%
ROA1.5%1.3%1.6%1.3%1.1%1.7%1.3%4.6%3.9%3.5%
ROE8%7.4%13%8.9%10%14%11%40%22%22%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +12.84%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.78%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +2.32%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.66%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +17.63%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +4.32%.


Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years12-201412-201512-201612-201712-201812-201912-202012-202112-2022TTM
Debt FCF----------
Debt Equity0.210.210.270.250.270.240.290.400.380.38
MIN
Graham Stability---100%100%100%100%100%75%75%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.75.


Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years12-201512-201712-201912-2021Trend
Revenue2%0.5%-5.1%7.4%-1.6%
Net Income14%14%1.1%-55%3.1%
Stockholders Equity-2.3%-5.3%-14%-19%-2.5%
FCF-----

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +0.5%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.59%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +13.58%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.08%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -5.34%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.48%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -.