American Eagle Outfitters Inc

AEO

Retail-Family Clothing Stores

Mkt Cap

$4.678B

PE

27.51

Debt

Cash

$354.1M

EV

FCF

$406.3M

Market Cap

$4.678B

P/E Ratio

27.51

Debt

Cash

$354.1M

EV

FCF

$406.3M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":80322000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":218138000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":212449000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":204163000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":261902000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":191257000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":-209274000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":419629000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":125136000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":170038000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":3282867000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":3521848000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":3609865000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":3795549000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":4035720000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":4308212000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":3759113000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":5010785000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":4989833000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":5261770000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":0.02446702836270857},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":0.061938505012141355},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":0.05885233935341072},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":0.053790110468867613},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":0.06489597890834845},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":0.044393590658955505},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":-0.05567111177557046},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":0.08374516168624277},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":0.025078193999678946},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":0.03231574166107602}],"Assets":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":1696908000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":1612246000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":1782660000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":1816313000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":1903378000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":3328679000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":3434806000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":3786643000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":3420956000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":3557909000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":1139746000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":1051376000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":1204569000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":1246791000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":1287555000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":1247853000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":1086665000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":1423672000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":1599163000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":1736759000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":0.07047359674874928},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":0.20747858045076167},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":0.17636930719618385},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":0.16375078100499602},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":0.2034103397524766},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":0.15326885458463457},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":-0.19258373095664258},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":0.2947511786422715},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":0.07825093502038254},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":0.09790535128938442}],"ROA":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":0.09399566741390812},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":0.19964136986539274},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":0.18806839217798121},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":0.16670474747469186},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":0.18130923022121723},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":0.07368628816416362},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":-0.07899863922445692},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":0.15609208473045913},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":0.07221577827952186},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":0.06741543979905051}]}

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer that provides clothing, accessories, and personal care products under the American Eagle and Aerie brands in the United States and internationally. The company provides jeans, apparel and accessories, and personal care products for women and men; and intimates, apparel, activewear, and swim collections. It also offers menswear products under the Todd Snyder New York brand; and fashion clothing and accessories under the Unsubscribed brand. The company sells its products through retail stores; digital channels, such as www.ae.com, www.aerie.com, www.toddsnyder.com, and www.unsubscribed.com; and applications. American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Sector

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10/28/23
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11/3/18
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8/4/18
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5/5/18
10-K
2/3/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of American Eagle Outfitters Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$406.3M	$409.9M	$413.5M	$417.1M	$420.8M	$424.5M	$428.2M	$432M	$435.8M	$439.7M	$443.5M	$4.435B
DCF		$356.4M	$312.6M	$274.3M	$240.6M	$211M	$185.1M	$162.4M	$142.5M	$125M	$109.6M	$1.096B
Value	$3.216B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 0.15%

Earnings Stability -4%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	01-2016	01-2017	02-2018	02-2019	01-2020	01-2021	01-2022	01-2023	02-2024	TTM
Net Margin	6.2%	5.9%	5.4%	6.5%	4.4%	-5.6%	8.4%	2.5%	3.2%	3.2%
ROA	20%	19%	17%	18%	7.4%	-7.9%	16%	7.2%	6.7%	6.7%
ROE	21%	18%	16%	20%	15%	-19%	29%	7.8%	9.8%	9.8%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +3.25%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.23%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7.86%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.97%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +10.58%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.76%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Data are missing

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	01-2016	01-2017	02-2018	02-2019	01-2020	01-2021	01-2022	01-2023	02-2024	TTM
Debt FCF	-	-	-	-	-	4.36	4.88	0.06	-	-
Debt Equity	-	-	-	-	-	0.30	0.24	0.01	-	-
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	85%	-96%	100%	93%	100%	-96%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -2.15.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.96.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	01-2017	02-2019	01-2021	01-2023	Trend
Revenue	5.5%	5.4%	12%	5.4%	0.35%
Net Income	-3.1%	-8.3%	-	36%	-13%
Stockholders Equity	5.4%	6.2%	17%	8.6%	1.6%
FCF	10%	8.7%	76%	180%	8.2%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.45%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.35%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -8.28%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -13.21%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.17%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.63%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.71%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +8.21%.