Addus Homecare Corp

ADUS

Services-Home Health Care Services

Mkt Cap

$1.796B

PE

27.35

Debt

$99.35M

Cash

$76.72M

EV

$1.819B

FCF

$122.1M

Market Cap

$1.796B

P/E Ratio

27.35

Debt

$99.35M

Cash

$76.72M

EV

$1.819B

FCF

$122.1M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":12243000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":11623000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":12024000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":13608000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":25237000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":33133000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":45126000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":46025000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":62516000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":312942000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":336815000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":400929000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":425994000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":648791000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":764775000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":864499000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":951120000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1058651000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.039122265467722454},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.03450855811053546},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.029990347418121413},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.03194411188889985},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.038898505065575815},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.0433238534209408},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.052199019316390184},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.048390318782067454},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.05905251116751413}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":180803000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":192612000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":231030000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":267110000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":636748000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":892582000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":947585000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":937994000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1024426000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":127956000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":141726000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":158928000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":175080000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":475592000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":518676000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":574344000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":633540000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":706694000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.09568132795648504},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.08201035801476088},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.07565690123829659},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.07772446881425633},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.053064391327019796},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.06387995588768325},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.07856963770841169},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.07264734665530195},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.08846261606862377}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.10004811867059728},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.08343716902373684},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.07900705536077565},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.09929242634120775},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.056969162054690395},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.050562301278762066},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.06958320361761741},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.0732808525427668},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.08878728185344768}]}

Addus HomeCare Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides personal care services to elderly, chronically ill, disabled persons, and individuals who are at risk of hospitalization or institutionalization in the United States. It operates through three segments: Personal Care, Hospice, and Home Health. The Personal Care segment provides non-medical assistance with activities of daily living. This segment offers services that include assistance with bathing, grooming, oral care, feeding and dressing, medication reminders, meal planning and preparation, housekeeping, and transportation services. The Hospice segment provides palliative nursing care, social work, spiritual counseling, homemaker, and bereavement counseling services for people who are terminally ill, as well as related services for their families. The Home Health segment offers skilled nursing and physical, occupational, and speech therapy for the individuals who requires assistance during an illness or after hospitalization. The company's payor clients include federal, state, and local governmental agencies; managed care organizations; commercial insurers; and private individuals. Addus HomeCare Corporation was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Frisco, Texas.

Sector

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3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Addus Homecare Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$122.1M	$158.7M	$201.9M	$251.3M	$305.7M	$363.5M	$422.1M	$478.3M	$528.8M	$570M	$598.5M	$5.985B
DCF		$138M	$152.7M	$165.2M	$174.8M	$180.7M	$182.5M	$179.8M	$172.9M	$162M	$147.9M	$1.479B
Value	$3.136B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 27%

Earnings Stability 61%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	3.9%	3.5%	3%	3.2%	3.9%	4.3%	5.2%	4.8%	5.9%	6%
ROA	10%	8.3%	7.9%	9.9%	5.7%	5.1%	7%	7.3%	8.9%	9.5%
ROE	9.6%	8.2%	7.6%	7.8%	5.3%	6.4%	7.9%	7.3%	8.8%	9.1%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +4.56%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.49%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7.31%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.04%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +7.24%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.36%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	2.17	-11.22	0.94	-	1.91	6.34	1.36	1.21	0.81
Debt Equity	-	0.03	0.17	0.26	0.13	0.38	0.38	0.21	0.18	0.14
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.81.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.10.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 1.00.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2015	12-2017	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	18%	20%	11%	11%	-0.4%
Net Income	27%	36%	24%	36%	3.5%
Stockholders Equity	26%	32%	11%	12%	-2%
FCF	77%	16%	0.069%	6.2%	-22%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +19.97%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.4%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +35.66%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.5%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +32.19%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.96%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +15.9%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -22.33%.