Analog Devices Inc

ADI

Semiconductors & Related Devices

Mkt Cap

$116B

PE

54.18

Debt

$7.51B

Cash

$1.94B

EV

$121.5B

FCF

$3.064B

Market Cap

$116B

P/E Ratio

54.18

Debt

$7.51B

Cash

$1.94B

EV

$121.5B

FCF

$3.064B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-10-31","value":629320000},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":696878000},{"time":"2016-10-28","value":861664000},{"time":"2017-10-27","value":725016000},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":1489523000},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":1359782000},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":1220761000},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":1390422000},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":2748561000},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":3314579000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-10-31","value":2864773000},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":3435092000},{"time":"2016-10-28","value":3421409000},{"time":"2017-10-27","value":5107503000},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":6200942000},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":5991065000},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":5603056000},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":7318286000},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":12013953000},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":12305539000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-10-31","value":0.21967534600472707},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":0.20287025791448962},{"time":"2016-10-28","value":0.251844780907515},{"time":"2017-10-27","value":0.14195116478639366},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":0.24020914886802683},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":0.22696832700029126},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":0.217874138684318},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":0.18999284805212588},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":0.22878073520014602},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":0.2693566693827877}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-10-31","value":6859690000},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":7062178000},{"time":"2016-10-28","value":7970278000},{"time":"2017-10-27","value":21141294000},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":20449779000},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":21392641000},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":21468603000},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":52322071000},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":50302350000},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":48794478000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-10-31","value":4757897000},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":5072959000},{"time":"2016-10-28","value":5165618000},{"time":"2017-10-27","value":10161540000},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":10988540000},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":11709188000},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":11997945000},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":37992542000},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":36465323000},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":35565122000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-10-31","value":0.13226852115546006},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":0.1373711082624559},{"time":"2016-10-28","value":0.16680753396786213},{"time":"2017-10-27","value":0.0713490278048406},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":0.135552402775983},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":0.11612948737350531},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":0.1017475075940088},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":0.03659723532055317},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":0.07537465114459564},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":0.09319745901616758}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-10-31","value":0.11139410089960333},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":0.11853906825911213},{"time":"2016-10-28","value":0.13119718032419947},{"time":"2017-10-27","value":0.0510529298726937},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":0.09252452068063914},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":0.08015854610938407},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":0.07009873907491791},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":0.03234201107979843},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":0.06517985740228836},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":0.07835132491836473}]}

Analog Devices, Inc. designs, manufactures, tests, and markets integrated circuits (ICs), software, and subsystems that leverage analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing technologies. The company provides data converter products, which translate real-world analog signals into digital data, as well as translates digital data into analog signals; power management and reference products for power conversion, driver monitoring, sequencing, and energy management applications in the automotive, communications, industrial, and high-end consumer markets; and power ICs that include performance, integration, and software design simulation tools for accurate power supply designs. It also offers high-performance amplifiers to condition analog signals; and radio frequency and microwave ICs to support cellular infrastructure; and micro-electro-mechanical systems technology solutions, including accelerometers used to sense acceleration, gyroscopes for sense rotation, inertial measurement units to sense multiple degrees of freedom, and broadband switches for radio and instrument systems, as well as isolators. In addition, the company provides digital signal processing and system products for high-speed numeric calculations. It serves clients in the industrial, automotive, consumer, instrumentation, aerospace, and communications markets through a direct sales force, third-party distributors, and independent sales representatives in the United States, rest of North and South America, Europe, Japan, China, and rest of Asia, as well as through its Website. Analog Devices, Inc. was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.

Sector

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10/28/23
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11/3/18
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8/4/18
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5/5/18
10-Q
2/3/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Analog Devices Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$3.064B	$3.707B	$4.418B	$5.187B	$5.999B	$6.831B	$7.657B	$8.447B	$9.169B	$9.79B	$10.28B	$102.8B
DCF		$3.223B	$3.341B	$3.411B	$3.43B	$3.396B	$3.31B	$3.176B	$2.997B	$2.783B	$2.541B	$25.41B
Value	$57.02B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 19%

Earnings Stability 80%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	10-2015	10-2016	10-2017	11-2018	11-2019	10-2020	10-2021	10-2022	10-2023	TTM
Net Margin	20%	25%	14%	24%	23%	22%	19%	23%	27%	20%
ROA	12%	13%	5.1%	9.3%	8%	7%	3.2%	6.5%	7.8%	5.2%
ROE	14%	17%	7.1%	14%	12%	10%	3.7%	7.5%	9.3%	6.1%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +22.89%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.35%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +6.98%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.44%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +9.31%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -1.14%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	10-2015	10-2016	10-2017	11-2018	11-2019	10-2020	10-2021	10-2022	10-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	1.16	1.50	8.64	2.89	2.78	2.79	3.05	1.74	1.80	2.45
Debt Equity	0.17	0.34	0.77	0.58	0.47	0.43	0.19	0.18	0.18	0.21
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	99%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 2.45.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.24.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.99.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	10-2016	11-2018	10-2020	10-2022	Trend
Revenue	20%	15%	30%	2.4%	0.98%
Net Income	21%	17%	40%	21%	3.4%
Stockholders Equity	32%	26%	44%	-2.5%	3%
FCF	17%	10%	24%	-5.8%	-1.5%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +14.69%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.98%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +17.35%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.42%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +26.48%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.01%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.21%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.48%.