Aci Worldwide, Inc.

ACIW

Services-Prepackaged Software

Mkt Cap

$2.935B

PE

32.93

Debt

$1.143B

Cash

$223.5M

EV

$3.854B

FCF

$111.3M

Market Cap

$2.935B

P/E Ratio

32.93

Debt

$1.143B

Cash

$223.5M

EV

$3.854B

FCF

$111.3M

ACI Worldwide, Inc., a software company, develops, markets, installs, and supports a range of software products and solutions for facilitating digital payments in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Banks, Merchants, and Billers. The company offers ACI Acquiring, a merchant management system to deliver digital innovation, handle new payment methods, and maximize margins; ACI Issuing, a digital payment issuing solution for new payment offering and enable channels, services, endpoints, and integrations from a single cloud-based or on-premises solution; and ACI Enterprise Payments Platform that provides payment processing and orchestration capabilities for digital payments. It also provides ACI Low Value Real-Time Payments, a platform for processing real-time payments; and ACI High Value Real-Time Payments, a payments engine that offers multi-bank, multi-currency, 24x7 payment processing, and SWIFT messaging. In addition, the company offers ACI Omni Commerce, a scalable, omni-channel payment processing platform; ACI Secure eCommerce solution; ACI Fraud Management, a real-time approach to fraud management; and ACI Speedpay, an integrated suite of digital billing, payment, disbursement, and communication services. The company offers electronic bill presentment and payment services to consumer finance, insurance, healthcare, higher education, utility, government, and mortgage sectors; implementation services, include product installations and configurations, and custom software modifications; and business and technical consultancy, on-site support, product education, and testing services, as well as distributes or acts as a sales agent for software developed by third parties. It markets its products under the ACI Worldwide brand. The company was formerly known as Transaction Systems Architects, Inc. and changed its name to ACI Worldwide, Inc. in July 2007. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in Coral Gables, Florida.

Sector

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9/30/18
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3/31/18
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12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Aci Worldwide, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$111.3M	$116.9M	$122.8M	$128.9M	$135.4M	$142.2M	$149.4M	$156.9M	$164.7M	$173M	$181.6M	$1.816B
DCF		$101.6M	$92.82M	$84.78M	$77.43M	$70.72M	$64.58M	$58.97M	$53.85M	$49.17M	$44.89M	$448.9M
Value	$1.148B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 7.5%

Earnings Stability 4.7%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Net Margin	6.6%	8.2%	13%	0.5%	6.8%	5.3%	5.6%	9.3%	10%	6.2%
ROA	7.5%	6.4%	12%	4.5%	5.9%	3.8%	4.3%	6.6%	6.4%	5.6%
ROE	12%	13%	17%	0.67%	6.6%	5.9%	6%	10%	12%	7.4%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +6.27%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.58%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +5.27%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.34%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +6.9%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.93%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Debt FCF	7.45	6.64	14.29	5.93	4.26	12.48	3.79	5.62	8.93	10.27
Debt Equity	1.68	1.58	1.12	0.93	0.67	1.26	1.00	0.90	0.97	0.94
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	5.5%	94%	99%	100%	100%	100%	5.5%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 10.27.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.30.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.05.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2015	12-2017	12-2019	12-2021	Trend
Revenue	4.5%	6.8%	4.2%	3.7%	-0.16%
Net Income	7.5%	94%	28%	11%	2.9%
Stockholders Equity	9%	9.3%	1.8%	-4.1%	-1.4%
FCF	-2.5%	1.6%	4.4%	-35%	-0.16%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.78%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.16%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +94.29%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.95%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.31%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.39%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.58%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.16%.