Pharmaceutical Preparations
AbbVie Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceuticals worldwide. The company offers Humira, a therapy administered as an injection for autoimmune, intestinal Behçet's diseases, and pyoderma gangrenosum; Skyrizi to treat moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, psoriatic disease, and Crohn's disease; Rinvoq, a JAK inhibitor to treat rheumatoid and psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, atopic dermatitis, axial spondyloarthropathy, and ulcerative colitis; Imbruvica for the treatment of adult patients with blood cancers; and Venclexta/Venclyxto to treat hematological malignancies. It also provides facial injectables, plastics and regenerative medicine, body contouring, and skincare products; Vraylar for depressive disorder; Duopa and Duodopa to treat advanced Parkinson's disease; and Ubrelvy for the acute treatment of migraine with or without aura in adults; Qulipta for episodic migraine. In addition, the company offers Lumigan/Ganfort and Alphagan/Combigan for the reduction of elevated intraocular pressure(IOP) in patients with open angle glaucoma (OAG) or ocular hypertension; Restasis, a calcineurin inhibitor immunosuppressant indicated to increase tear production; and eye care products. Further, it provides Mavyret/Maviret to treat chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1-6 infection and HCV genotype 1 infection; Creon, a pancreatic enzyme therapy; Lupron to treat advanced prostate cancer, endometriosis and central precocious puberty, and patients with anemia caused by uterine fibroids; Linzess/Constella to treat irritable bowel syndrome with constipation and chronic idiopathic constipation; and Synthroid for hypothyroidism. It has collaborations with Calico Life Sciences LLC; REGENXBIO Inc.; I-Mab Biopharma; Genmab A/S; Janssen Biotech, Inc.; and Genentech, Inc. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in North Chicago, Illinois.
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Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Abbvie Inc.
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $21.89B | $26.5B | $31.6B | $37.13B | $42.96B | $48.94B | $54.88B | $60.56B | $65.74B | $70.2B | $73.71B | $737.1B |
DCF | $23.04B | $23.9B | $24.41B | $24.56B | $24.33B | $23.72B | $22.77B | $21.49B | $19.96B | $18.22B | $182.2B | |
Value | $408.6B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 23% | 23% | 19% | 17% | 24% | 9.9% | 20% | 20% | 8.9% | 11% |
ROA | 14% | 14% | 14% | 11% | 15% | 7.5% | 12% | 13% | 9.5% | 8.6% |
ROE | 130% | 130% | 100% | -67% | -96% | 35% | 74% | 68% | 46% | 74% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +16.73%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -1.18%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +11.32%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.22%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +10.11%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +31.39%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 4.46 | 5.61 | 3.92 | 3.03 | 5.56 | 5.56 | 4.02 | 2.77 | 3.01 | 3.38 |
Debt Equity | 7.93 | 7.94 | 7.25 | -4.58 | -8.69 | 7.13 | 5.73 | 3.89 | 6.39 | 9.20 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 73% | 100% | 100% | 52% | 52% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.38.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.28.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.52.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 11% | 11% | 5.8% | -6.4% | -1.1% |
Net Income | -2.9% | -3.2% | 1.9% | -59% | -13% |
Stockholders Equity | 12% | - | -7.4% | -40% | -11% |
FCF | 19% | 12% | 9.5% | -9% | -9.5% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.65%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.06%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -3.15%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -12.62%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -11.48%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +11.52%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -9.5%.