Apple Inc.

AAPL

Electronic Computers

Mkt Cap

$2.939T

PE

29.28

Debt

$113.4B

Cash

$33.92B

EV

$3.019T

FCF

$101.9B

Market Cap

$2.939T

P/E Ratio

29.28

Debt

$113.4B

Cash

$33.92B

EV

$3.019T

FCF

$101.9B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":39510000000},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":53394000000},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":45687000000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":48351000000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":59531000000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":55256000000},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":57411000000},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":94680000000},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":99803000000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":96995000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":182795000000},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":233715000000},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":215639000000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":229234000000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":265595000000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":260174000000},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":274515000000},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":365817000000},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":394328000000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":383285000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":0.21614376760852322},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":0.22845773698735639},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":0.211867983064288},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.21092420845075338},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.22414202074587247},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.21238094505984456},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":0.20913611278072236},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":0.2588179335569424},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":0.2530964070519973},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.2530623426432028}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":231839000000},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":290479000000},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":321686000000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":375319000000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":365725000000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":338516000000},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":323888000000},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":351002000000},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":352755000000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":352583000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":111547000000},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":119355000000},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":128249000000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":134047000000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":107147000000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":90488000000},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":65339000000},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":63090000000},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":50672000000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":62146000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":0.3542004715501089},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":0.44735453060198566},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":0.3562366958026963},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.3607018433832909},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.5556011834209077},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.6106445053487756},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":0.8786635853012749},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":1.5007132667617689},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":1.9695887275023682},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":1.5607601454639075}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":0.2306902635018267},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":0.2496393887337811},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":0.19078231567429108},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.17075874123079302},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.19933830063572355},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.19419170733436528},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":0.2071425925011115},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":0.3111292813146364},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":0.3385834360958739},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.32418182385424144}]}

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts. In addition, the company offers various services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV+, which offers exclusive original content; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and resellers. Apple Inc. was incorporated in 1977 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

Sector

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3/31/18
10-Q
12/30/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Apple Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$101.9B	$111.4B	$121.3B	$131.5B	$141.8B	$152.3B	$162.9B	$173.4B	$183.7B	$193.8B	$203.5B	$2.035T
DCF		$96.9B	$91.72B	$86.44B	$81.1B	$75.74B	$70.43B	$65.19B	$60.07B	$55.09B	$50.3B	$503B
Value	$1.236T

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 11%

Earnings Stability 83%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	09-2015	09-2016	09-2017	09-2018	09-2019	09-2020	09-2021	09-2022	09-2023	TTM
Net Margin	23%	21%	21%	22%	21%	21%	26%	25%	25%	26%
ROA	25%	19%	17%	20%	19%	21%	31%	34%	32%	35%
ROE	45%	36%	36%	56%	61%	88%	150%	200%	160%	140%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +23.51%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.9%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +26.24%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +3.32%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +117.93%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +27.78%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	09-2015	09-2016	09-2017	09-2018	09-2019	09-2020	09-2021	09-2022	09-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	0.83	1.54	2.16	1.76	1.90	1.57	1.38	1.10	1.17	1.11
Debt Equity	0.49	0.64	0.82	1.05	1.24	1.76	2.03	2.43	1.87	1.53
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.11.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.16.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 1.00.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	09-2016	09-2018	09-2020	09-2022	Trend
Revenue	8.6%	7.6%	12%	-2.8%	-0.54%
Net Income	11%	10%	19%	-2.8%	0.11%
Stockholders Equity	-9.8%	-10%	-1.7%	23%	-0.71%
FCF	9.4%	9.2%	11%	-11%	-0.15%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.61%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.54%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.26%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.11%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -10.32%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.71%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.2%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.15%.