Advance Auto Parts Inc
- Consumer Discretionary
- Auto & Home Supply Stores
- www.advanceautoparts.com
- Earnings Score
- Moat Score
- Safety Score
- Market Cap $2.84B
- PE 154
- Debt $1.79B
- Cash $464.49M
- EV $4.16B
- FCF $229.98M
Earnings
Sales & Net Margins
Assets & ROA
Stockholders Equity & ROE
SEC Filings
Direct access to Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.
Sector Comparison
How does Advance Auto Parts Inc compare to its competitors?
Peter Lynch's Chart
This chart shows the current pricing of Advance Auto Parts Inc compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.
Advance Auto Parts Inc Discounted Cash Flow
Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Advance Auto Parts Inc.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fcf | $230M | $226M | $223M | $219M | $215M | $212M | $209M | $205M | $202M | $199M | $195M | $2B |
| DCF | $206M | $184M | $165M | $147M | $132M | $118M | $105M | $94M | $84M | $75M | $754M | |
| Value | $2.1B |
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 01/2015 | 01/2016 | 12/2016 | 12/2017 | 12/2018 | 12/2019 | 01/2021 | 12/2021 | 12/2022 | 12/2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margins | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 1% |
| ROA | - | 10% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 0% |
| ROE | - | 19% | 16% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 20% | 19% | 1% | 1% |
Bad Net Margins (1.11%)
Safety and Stability
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 01/2015 | 01/2016 | 12/2016 | 12/2017 | 12/2018 | 12/2019 | 01/2021 | 12/2021 | 12/2022 | 12/2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt over FCF | - | 2.67 | 4.35 | 2.56 | 1.7 | 1.26 | 1.49 | 1.27 | 4.65 | 40.03 | 7.78 |
| Debt over Equity | 0.82 | 0.49 | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.3 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| Growth Stability | - | - | - | 100% | 90% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 94% | 6% | 6% |
Bad Debt/FCF ratio (7.78)
Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.69)
Bad Graham’s Stability (6%)
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 01/2015 | 01/2016 | 12/2016 | 12/2017 | 12/2018 | 12/2019 | 01/2021 | 12/2021 | 12/2022 | 12/2023 | CAGR 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY growth | - | -1% | -2% | -2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Earnings YoY growth | - | -4% | -3% | 3% | -11% | 15% | 1% | 25% | -19% | -94% | -43% |
| Equity YoY growth | - | 23% | 19% | 17% | 4% | -0% | 0% | -12% | -14% | -6% | -9% |
| FCF YoY growth | - | -5% | -47% | 70% | 50% | -3% | 18% | 17% | -64% | -85% | -16% |