Advance Auto Parts Inc

Consumer Discretionary
Auto & Home Supply Stores
www.advanceautoparts.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $1.88B
PE -6
Debt $1.80B
Cash $1.87B
EV $1.81B
FCF -$40.30M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	-$335.79M
EBIT	-$713.31M
ROE	-15%
ROA	-7%
FCF	-$40.30M
Equity	$2.17B
Growth Stability	-88%
PE	-5.6
PEG	0.17
PB	0.87
P/FCF	-46.67
P/S	0.21
Price/Cash	0.99
Debt/Equity	0.83
Debt/FCF	-44.67
Net Margins	-4%
Gross Margins	37%
Op. Margins	-8%
Earnings CAGR	-12%
Sales Growth YoY	-19%
Sales Growth QoQ	98%
Sales CAGR	2%
FCF CAGR	-2%
Equity CAGR	-1%
Earnings Stability	0.17
Earnings Growth YoY	585%
Earnings Growth QoQ	7K%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	-33%

Sales CAGR 5Y	1%
FCF CAGR 5Y	-14%
Equity CAGR 5Y	-9%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-4%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-4%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-7%
Equity CAGR 3Y	-6%
Market Cap	$1.88B
Revenue	$9.09B
Dividend Yield	3%
Payout Ratio	-18%
Assets	$10.80B
Total Debt	$1.80B
Cash	$1.87B
Shares Outstanding	59.65M
EV	1.81B
Earnings Score	4%
Moat Score	9%
Safety Score	38%
Final Score	17%
Working Capital	1.48B
Current Ratio	1.32
Gross Profit	$3.41B
Shares Growth 3y	-1%
Equity Growth QoQ	-16%
Equity Growth YoY	-14%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Advance Auto Parts is one of the industry's largest retailers of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories to do-it-yourself customers in North America. Advance operated 4,972 stores as of the end of 2021, in addition to servicing 1,317 independently owned Carquest stores. The company's Worldpac unit is a premier distributor of imported original-equipment parts. Advance derived 58% of its 2021 sales from commercial clients, up from 30%-40% before the General Parts deal.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-K Dec 28
- 10-Q Oct 05
- 10-Q Jul 13
- 10-Q Apr 20
2023
- 10-K Dec 30
- 10-Q Oct 07
- 10-Q Jul 15
- 10-Q Apr 22
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Oct 08
- 10-Q Jul 16
- 10-Q Apr 23
- 10-K Jan 01

Sector Comparison

How does Advance Auto Parts Inc compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Advance Auto Parts Inc compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR -12%

Stability 17%

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Advance Auto Parts Inc Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Advance Auto Parts Inc.

Years

Calculation mode

= -$363M

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	-$40M	-$40M	-$39M	-$38M	-$38M	-$37M	-$37M	-$36M	-$36M	-$35M	-$34M	-$345M
DCF		-$36M	-$32M	-$29M	-$26M	-$23M	-$21M	-$19M	-$17M	-$15M	-$13M	-$133M
Value	-$363M

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	01/2016	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Net Margins	5%	5%	5%	4%	5%	5%	6%	4%	0%	-4%	-4%
ROA	-	9%	7%	7%	6%	6%	7%	6%	1%	-7%	-7%
ROE	-	16%	14%	12%	14%	14%	20%	19%	1%	-15%	-15%

Bad Net Margins (-3.69%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	01/2016	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	4.35	2.56	1.7	1.26	1.49	1.27	4.65	40.03	-44.67	-44.67
Debt over Equity	0.49	0.36	0.31	0.3	0.21	0.29	0.33	0.52	0.71	0.83	0.83
Growth Stability	-	-	-	90%	100%	100%	100%	94%	6%	-88%	-88%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (-44.67)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.83)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (-88%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	01/2016	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-2%	-2%	2%	1%	4%	9%	1%	1%	-19%	1%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-3%	3%	-11%	15%	1%	25%	-19%	-94%	-1K%	-33%
Equity YoY growth	-	19%	17%	4%	-0%	0%	-12%	-14%	-6%	-14%	-9%
FCF YoY growth	-	-47%	70%	50%	-3%	18%	17%	-64%	-85%	-190%	-14%