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Alcoa Corp

AA

Primary Production of Aluminum

Mkt Cap

$7.455B

PE

-9.64

Debt

$1.89B

Cash

$1.047B

EV

$8.298B

FCF

-$440M

Market Cap

$7.455B

P/E Ratio

-9.64

Debt

$1.89B

Cash

$1.047B

EV

$8.298B

FCF

-$440M
Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-347000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-863000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-400000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":217000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":227000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-1125000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-170000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":429000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-123000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-773000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":13147000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":11199000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":9318000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":11652000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":13403000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":10433000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":9286000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":12152000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":12451000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":10551000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.02639385411120408},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.07706045182605589},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.042927666881305004},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.01862341228973567},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.01693650675221965},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.10783092111569059},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.018307129011415034},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.03530283080974325},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.0098787246004337},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.07326319780115628}],"Assets":[{"time":"2015-12-30","value":16413000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":16741000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":17447000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":15938000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":14631000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":14860000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":15025000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":14756000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":14155000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":13073000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":11513000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":7697000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":6798000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":7394000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":5886000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":5016000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":6284000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":6589000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":5845000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.02654325709477549},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.07495874229132285},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.051968299337404184},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.031921153280376584},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.030700568028130915},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.191131498470948},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.033891547049441785},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.06826861871419478},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.01866747609652451},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.13224978614200172}],"ROA":[{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.020532504721866813},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.009676841287856161},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.06642975869777039},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.10020077801480738},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.02993643633381177},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.011641991924629879},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.07980033277870216},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.04757386825698021},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.041257506181561286}]}

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it owns hydro power plants that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Sector

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In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 45%
Earnings Stability -13%


Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years12-201512-201612-201712-201812-201912-202012-202112-202212-2023TTM
Net Margin-7.7%-4.3%1.9%1.7%-11%-1.8%3.5%-0.99%-7.3%-7.3%
ROA-2.1%-0.97%6.6%10%-3%1.2%8%4.8%-4.1%-4.1%
ROE-7.5%-5.2%3.2%3.1%-19%-3.4%6.8%-1.9%-13%-13%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -2.62%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.3%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +2.8%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.16%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -4.62%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.56%.


Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years12-201512-201612-201712-201812-201912-202012-202112-202212-2023TTM
Debt FCF--2.051.7336.805.8762.003.405.29-4.30-4.30
Debt Equity0.020.190.210.240.310.510.290.270.320.32
MIN
Graham Stability-----7.7K%----1.7K%-7.7K%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -4.30.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -7.59.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -76.70.


Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years12-201612-201812-202012-2022Trend
Revenue1.8%-4.7%4.3%-15%0.69%
Net Income-----
Stockholders Equity-3.9%-4.6%5.2%-11%2.8%
FCF----63%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is -4.67%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.69%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -4.59%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.78%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +63.11%.