Alcoa Corp

Industrials
Aluminum
www.alcoa.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $8.39B
PE -21
Debt $2.93B
Cash $1.41B
EV $9.91B
FCF -$194.00M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	-$405.00M
EBIT	-$126.00M
ROE	-8%
ROA	-1%
FCF	-$194.00M
Equity	$5.25B
Growth Stability	-8K%
PE	-20.72
PEG	-62.26
PB	1.6
P/FCF	-43.25
P/S	0.76
Price/Cash	0.17
Debt/Equity	0.56
Debt/FCF	-15.12
Net Margins	-2%
Gross Margins	11%
Op. Margins	-1%
Earnings CAGR	2%
Sales Growth YoY	12%
Sales Growth QoQ	-0%
Sales CAGR	4%
FCF CAGR	1%
Equity CAGR	-7%
Earnings Stability	0.05
Earnings Growth YoY	-151%
Earnings Growth QoQ	216%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	0%

Sales CAGR 5Y	3%
FCF CAGR 5Y	7%
Equity CAGR 5Y	2%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-8%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-8%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-5%
Equity CAGR 3Y	-8%
Market Cap	$8.39B
Revenue	$11.00B
Dividend Yield	1%
Payout Ratio	-20%
Assets	$14.54B
Total Debt	$2.93B
Cash	$1.41B
Shares Outstanding	197M
EV	9.91B
Earnings Score	6%
Moat Score	13%
Safety Score	38%
Final Score	19%
Working Capital	1.41B
Current Ratio	1.41
Gross Profit	$1.25B
Shares Growth 3y	1%
Equity Growth QoQ	-3%
Equity Growth YoY	-14%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company whose operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and the manufacture of primary aluminum. It is the world's largest bauxite miner and alumina refiner by production volume, and its profits are closely tied to prevailing commodity prices along the aluminum supply chain.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Alcoa Corp (AA) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Alcoa Corp compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Alcoa Corp compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 2%

Stability 5%

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Alcoa Corp Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Alcoa Corp.

Years

Calculation mode

= -$2B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	-$194M	-$195M	-$196M	-$198M	-$199M	-$200M	-$201M	-$202M	-$203M	-$205M	-$206M	-$2.1B
DCF		-$177M	-$162M	-$148M	-$136M	-$124M	-$114M	-$104M	-$95M	-$87M	-$79M	-$794M
Value	-$2B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	-3%	-8%	-4%	2%	2%	-11%	-2%	4%	-1%	-7%	-2%
ROA	-	-	-1%	7%	10%	-3%	1%	8%	5%	-4%	-1%
ROE	-	-	-5%	3%	3%	-19%	-3%	7%	-2%	-13%	-8%

Bad Net Margins (-2.12%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	-	-2.05	1.73	36.8	5.87	62	3.4	5.29	-4.3	-15.12
Debt over Equity	-	0.02	0.19	0.21	0.24	0.31	0.51	0.29	0.27	0.32	0.56
Growth Stability	-	-	-	-	-	-8K%	-	-	-	-2K%	-8K%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (-15.12)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.56)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (-8K%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-15%	-17%	25%	15%	-22%	-11%	31%	2%	-15%	3%
Earnings YoY growth	-	149%	-54%	-154%	5%	-596%	-85%	-352%	-129%	528%	0%
Equity YoY growth	-	-12%	-33%	-12%	9%	-20%	-15%	25%	5%	-11%	2%
FCF YoY growth	-	22%	-248%	-215%	-94%	527%	-87%	1K%	-35%	-229%	7%